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EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 10/5/2019

By Vince Dray

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Liverpool players celebrate their 1st goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Liverpool players celebrate their 1st goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images) /
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NORWICH, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 14: Teemu Pukki celebrates scoring the third goal for Norwich City during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Manchester City at Carrow Road on September 14, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images)
NORWICH, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 14: Teemu Pukki celebrates scoring the third goal for Norwich City during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Manchester City at Carrow Road on September 14, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images) /

EPL DFS – Top-Tier Attackers

Mo Salah (Leicester @ Liverpool, $21) – As the player with the best odds to score (EVEN) on the slate’s largest favorite, Mo Salah is a top-tier play for anyone looking to get their Liverpool exposure.  He’s coming off two goals on Wednesday in an exciting win over Red Bull Salzburg in the Champions League.  His scoring has been a little inconsistent this year as he has not scored in back to back EPL games yet.  He did not score against Chelsea or Sheffield on the road, so he’s due for a goal in this game at home.  One thing Salah has done this year is to provide assists (3), and his ability to put shots on goal and create chances gives him a good floor.

He’s $1 cheaper than Sadio Mane ($22) who is +105 to score.  Mane started the season on a heater, but he only has 1 goal in his last 4 games.  Recently, I have preferred Mane, but I’m taking Salah over him this week.

Teemu Pukki (Aston Villa @ Norwich, $18) – Speaking of players who started out the season hot, very few were hotter than Pukki who had 6 goals in his first 5 games.  He only scored once in the month of September, but that doesn’t worry me.  Norwich played 2 of their 3 games on the road and they only have 1 away goal this season.  Pukki scored against City in their only home game of the month.  This is a great home matchup for Pukki and Norwich’s attack against Villa who has not won an away game yet in their return to the EPL.  Pukki has the best odds to score on the entire slate, so getting him for only $18 is a steal.  He’s a perfect guy to pair with Mane/Salah/Firmino, and you can even use him as your top stud.

Sebastien Haller (Crystal Palace @ West Ham, $19) – This plays a little less obvious at first glance but makes more sense when you dive into it.  West Ham is our slate’s 2nd largest favorite, and Haller is the best goal scorer on the team.  While Palace has not allowed many goals at home this season, the story isn’t the same on the road where they’re giving up 2.0 goals per game.  West Ham is off to a good start this season, and they’ll likely continue that on Saturday behind Haller.  While he has shown good ability to get peripherals through chances created and shots on goal, he’s inconsistent on that front.  He has the 5th best odds to score on the slate, and that’s really what I’m looking for from him.  He’s mostly a GPP play on this slate where he should be low owned.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester @ Liverpool, $17) – I can’t not mention Vardy in this breakdown.  We all know about his scoring history against top teams, but he’ll still go low owned on this slate making him a prime GPP play.  Yes, Liverpool has a good defense, but they have some goals this year including 3 at home on Wednesday in UCL play.  Vardy has also proven a superb ability to score against anyone, and he is off to a nice start this year with 5 goals in the league.  Liverpool are only 1.0 goal favorites on Saturday even at home, so this game could play out closer than you think.  Vardy has the best odds on Leicester to score at +180, and I’m more than willing to take a flier on him in GPPs.