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EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 10/5/2019

By Vince Dray

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Liverpool players celebrate their 1st goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Liverpool players celebrate their 1st goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images) /
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NORWICH, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 14: Teemu Pukki of Norwich City celebrates with teammate Emiliano Buendia of Norwich City after scoring his team’s third goal during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Manchester City at Carrow Road on September 14, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
NORWICH, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 14: Teemu Pukki of Norwich City celebrates with teammate Emiliano Buendia of Norwich City after scoring his team’s third goal during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Manchester City at Carrow Road on September 14, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images) /

EPL DFS – Mid-Tier Attackers

Emiliano Buendia (Aston Villa @ Norwich, $15) – The mid-tier attacker section isn’t so great on Saturday, but one player I definitely have my eyes on is Buendia in this plus matchup.  I already mentioned that Norwich is far superior at home, and this week they face a weak defensive team on their home turf.  He’s averaging 23.4 fantasy points at home which is a full 5 points higher than his average including away games.  Most of his value relies on chances created (2.4 per game average) and assists (3 in 3 home games).  Buendia’s price is very fair on this slate, and he’s a great mid-tier guy to prioritize on Saturday with his strong floor and high ceiling against Villa.

Andriy Yarmolenko (Crystal Palace @ West Ham, $14) – I was on Yarmolenko early in the season when he wasn’t playing well, so naturally I didn’t consider him on his current run of 3 goals in 4 games.  I’m back on Yarmolenko now chasing a hot hand in a good matchup.  I don’t normally like relying on goal scorers as mid-tier guys, but he has shown a good ability to get different kinds of peripherals in the last 4 games which is great news.  He has the 2nd best odds to score for West Ham in a home game against a team allowing multiple goals in every away game.  He can easily be paired with top attackers if you want West Ham exposure but can’t afford Haller.

Felipe Anderson ($13) is a solid play for cheap exposure to West Ham’s attack.  He’s +250 to score and can add in good peripherals in a matchup like this.

Chris Wood (Everton @ Burnley, $15) – I would be higher on Wood if he was a little cheaper, but he’s still a nice play regardless.  After a rough start to the season, Wood has 3 goals in his last 2 games.  He’s very goal dependent, so if you play him, you’re going to want to offset his low floor with some safer guys.  He gets a home matchup against Everton whose defense has been average at best so far this year.  This game won’t garner much attention on this slate, but for those that want, Wood would be my top Burnley option.

He’s in better form than Ashley Barnes ($17), he’s $2 cheaper, and his odds to score are just slightly worse.  Both should be very low owned on Saturday making them good, but albeit risky, GPP targets.

Anwar El Ghazi (Aston Villa @ Norwich, $13) – One viable strategy on Saturday will be to build a lineup that stacks this game.  It’s possible to get some top Norwich attackers at home and pair them with cheaper Aston Villa guys who also have a good matchup.  Norwich has given up 2nd most goals in the league so far with 2.3 per game, and although that mark is slightly lower at home (2.0 per game), they will still likely concede on Saturday.

John McGinn ($18) and Wesley ($17) have the best odds to score for Villa starters making them fair targets, I’d prefer to save my money and roster Anwar El Ghazi who has 2 goals and an assist this year.  I wouldn’t normally chase El Ghazi for peripherals, but I think this matchup gives him a safe-ish floor and goal upside.

Jack Grealish ($14) is playing well right now, and this is a good spot for him to continue his recent success.