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NASCAR DFS Picks 10/6/19: Drydenne 400

By A.J. Fagerlin

DOVER, DE - MAY 05: Miles the Monster statue outside of Dover International Speedway prior to the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series - Gander RV 400 on May 5, 2019 at Dover International Speedway in Dover DE. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
DOVER, DE - MAY 05: Miles the Monster statue outside of Dover International Speedway prior to the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series - Gander RV 400 on May 5, 2019 at Dover International Speedway in Dover DE. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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DOVER, DELAWARE – OCTOBER 04: Paul Menard, driver of the #21 Menards/Cardell Cabinets Ford, drives during practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on October 04, 2019 in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)
DOVER, DELAWARE – OCTOBER 04: Paul Menard, driver of the #21 Menards/Cardell Cabinets Ford, drives during practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on October 04, 2019 in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images) /

NASCAR DFS Low End Sleepers

Paul Menard

The 21 car seems to have some speed this week. In First Practice, Menard had the sixth fastest lap and the fifth best 10 lap average. In Final Practice he came back down to earth a bit, but then went out and qualified 13th on Saturday.

As I say, in this range I’m typically looking for positive place differential potential, but even starting rather high up in the field, Menard has the chance to stay there. Particularly in FanDuel where place differential is just half a point instead of a full point and DFS scoring is relied more on true finishing position and completing laps, a top 12 or 15, lead-lap finish from Menard would be a solid day.

In the Spring, Menard qualified 18th and finished 17th. In this race a year ago, he moved up to 16th from 18th. Menard isn’t out here lighting the world on fire, but a solid finish in the top third of the field is all you can ask from someone priced outside the top 20.

Austin Dillon

Here is where place differential starts to come into play. Austin Dillon’s Richard Childress 3 car will start from the 27th position on Sunday. While that team has struggled throughout the year, they have the potential to run top 15 nearly every week, leaving a lot of ground for Dillon to potentially make up.

Austin Dillon posted the ninth fastest lap in Final Practice and had 10 lap averages in the teens in both practice sessions. Sure, practice is much different than the race, but leads me to believe that there still is something to be desired from Dillon on Sunday.

Dillon finished 19th here in the Spring, which would provide a decent fantasy day given his starting position. But in this race last year, Dillon finished in the top 10, bringing it home seventh. That sort of recent history is eye-grabbing for a driver who is also priced outside the top 20 on DraftKings.

Michael McDowell

One driver that was rostered in nearly all the top DFS lineups last week at the ROVAL was Michael McDowell. His 12th place finish after a 22nd place start netted him 42 DraftKings points. And with a salary of $6,000, he was the steal of the race.

Now we are heading back to a true oval, so McDowell’s stock goes down a bit, but so does his salary. Even after such an impressive performance a week ago, McDowell costs $5,800 this week on DraftKings.

Now this isn’t McDowell’s best track, but he has led laps here and does not have a DNF in his last five races at Dover. McDowell led one lap in the Spring race at Dover and has led five total laps at the track since 2017.

Now McDowell doesn’t typically truly run at the front on tracks that don’t require a restrictor plate, so that shows that his team is willing to employ a different strategy and pit out of sequence with the rest of the field to get him out front. This can lead to laps led (as I mentioned), as well as fastest laps which net you a half point in DraftKings. If they stay out when everyone else comes in to pit, they may not only stay out long enough to lead laps, but by the time they get fresh tires on their car, everyone else’s may have worn down already, giving them the chance to run fast laps compared to even the best cars out there.

McDowell wasn’t great in practice and doesn’t have the best finishes the last couple races at Dover, but he always seems to find a way to avoid trouble and have a decent day. Priced as the 27th driver, McDowell may still be worth a flyer.

Honorable Mentions

Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher (outside of top 20 in FanDuel but top 20 in DraftKings)

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