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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 6

By Joe Metz

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 22: Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) celebrates a 2 yard touchdown catch during the NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts on September 22, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 22: Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) celebrates a 2 yard touchdown catch during the NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts on September 22, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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BUFFALO, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 29: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots hands off the ball to Sony Michel #26 against the Buffalo Bills during the first quarter in the game at New Era Field on September 29, 2019 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: New York Giants @ New England Patriots

PREVIEW

We saw yet another positive game script for the Patriots last week against the Redskins and we can expect much of the same in a matchup with the Giants, who rank in the bottom half of the league in both pass and rush DVOA. The Giants have allowed the 2nd most overall receiving yards, 9th most air yards, and the third highest aDOT (9.9) in the entire league, presenting a nice opportunity for the Patriots passing attack to have a field day.

On the Giants side, the Patriots defense has only allowed 22 points through 5 weeks (4.4 per week), making this a game that looks like a full-fade on their side of the ball, especially if Barkley sits again.

CASH PLAYS

Tom Brady (QB – NE): He’s topped 300 passing yards in 3 of 5 games this season and thrown multiple touchdowns in 4 of those 5. The Giants secondary is a mess and there’s no reason to believe Brady won’t eviscerate this defense in the first half. On a showdown slate, a QB provides a level of safety that position players cannot due to sheer volume. Brady is by far and away the safest player on the slate.

Sony Michel (RB – NE): 36 touches over the last two games and 5.69 yards per carry in his last outing while also seeing 3 targets in the passing game. If Burkhead comes back, expect the receptions to diminish, but this is another game where he should see 15+ touches with the positive game-script.

Josh Gordon (WR – NE): He gets the opportunity to line up with Janoris Jenkins, who’s posted a career-worst PFF grade of 54.4, ranking him 81st among qualified cornerbacks. He’s already been targeted on 249 air yards and allows an aDOT of 12.1 and has missed an average of 3 tackles per game. This has “boom” written all over it.

Julian Edelman (WR – NE): The volume should continue to be stable as he’s the only NE receiver with a target share north of 20%. He should be able to carve up Grant Haley (PFF grade of 52.3) in the middle of the field and has the highest floor of any receiver on the Patriots.

Patriots D/ST: They’ve allowed 22 total points this season and while the NYG offensive line ranks top-10 in the league in adjusted sack rate, the Patriots have been forcing 2.4 turnovers per game and should be licking their chops against a rookie quarterback. For what it’s worth, per Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, the Patriots would rank as the WR5 and the RB6 on the season – absolute insanity.

GPP PLAYS

James White (RB – NE): If Burkhead is out, White should continue to be a target-hog, He’s caught 14 balls over the last two weeks and remains too cheap on DraftKings, where the full point-per-reception gives him a heightened floor.