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EPL DFS Breakdown – Sunday 10/20/19

By Vince Dray

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Trent Alexander-Arnold of FC Liverpool controls the ball during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by TF-Images/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 02: Trent Alexander-Arnold of FC Liverpool controls the ball during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 2, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by TF-Images/Getty Images) /
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Liverpool
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (3rd left) celebrates scoring his side’s second goal of the game with his team-mates during the Premier League match at Anfield, Liverpool. (Photo by Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images) /

EPL DFS Captain Options

Sadio Mane (Liverpool, $16) – Mane shares the title as most likely to score on this slate (+115) with Salah, who I’ll address next.  I expect the very large majority of rosters on this slate to have one of the two in the captain spot.  Liverpool is rolling through the league so far having not dropped a single point in 2 months.  Mane has 5 goals in 7 starts and 10 shots on goal in those games.  He also adds in a handful of other peripheral stats such as chances created, tackles, and interceptions.  He isn’t goal dependent normally, but United has been limiting peripherals for their opponents.  I’m thinking that Mane needs a goal in this game to be a good play, but we’ve seen him score against top quality opponents time and time again.

Mo Salah (Liverpool, $13) – First off, FanDuel is making it really easy to get both Mane and Salah on this single game slate.  It’s going to make for some chalky lines but getting both is always viable if you can.  My reasoning for Salah in the captain spot is two-fold.  One, he has the same odds to score as Mane at +115.  Two, he has more assists and chances created than Mane this year which will count for more than Mane’s defensive peripherals.  I also think that Salah is a dollar or 2 underpriced as I’m not sure Mane is really worth $3 more than him.  The cash play is going to be including both Mane and Salah in your lineup.

Roberto Firmino (Liverpool, $13) – Putting Firmino in your captain spot and slotting Mane/Salah in your flex is going to be the way to differentiate yourself on Sunday.  He only barely trails them with +150 odds to score.  However, he’s more goal dependent than either Mane or Salah with very few peripherals aside from some chances created.  Putting him in your captain spot will really only pay off if he scores, which he has done in 3 out of Liverpool’s 4 away games this season.

EPL DFS Supporting Cast

James Milner (Liverpool, $9) – After Liverpool’s front 3 and Rashford, the slate is horrid.  Milner is the next best flex you can get.  I don’t normally chase guys for their PK upside, but that’s what we’re down to here.  Milner also takes some set pieces so the opportunity to get assists or chances created is there.  His playing time has been inconsistent this year, but with a full 90 minutes, he can you get you double digit points which is going to be hard to come by on this slate.  Many lineups with 4 Liverpool guys will include him.

Marcus Rashford (Manchester United, $15) – If you’re going to play Rashford, doing so while he’s at home is the time.  However, he happens to be facing the best team in the league with a great defense this week.  Liverpool have only given up 6 goals in 8 games this EPL season.  If they concede on Sunday it will likely be to Rashford.  All 3 of his goals have come at home this year.  He leads this United team in shots and gets his share of chances created.  However, it’s tough to justify him as more than a GPP play to differentiate yourself at this price.

Fabinho (Liverpool, $6) – I expect Fabinho to be the most popular value FWD/MID on this slate more due to the lack of good options rather than anything that has to do directly with him.  I don’t like guys who rely on peripherals against United, but that’s all we have on this slate.  Fabinho is the best option on this slate as a peripherals guys with his ability to spread them around in all the categories.  He’s also averaging 1+ chance created per game showing some involvement in Liverpool’s attack.  Georginio Wijnaldum ($5) is much more likely to score, but his peripherals have been very lacking this season.  If you need to save $1, just roll with him.

Andreas Pereira (Manchester United, $6) – I need to leave you all with at least one United FWD/MID option not named Marcus Rashford.  I’m hoping that this game is open enough for him to at least get some peripherals like tackles, but there’s no guarantee.  He’s only the 5th most likely starter to score for United, but it’s hard to warrant paying up for someone else with better odds against Liverpool’s defense.  The main reason to play Pereira is to get a Liverpool defender, which I will move to right now.