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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Opening night

By Brian Tulloch

TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 13: The Toronto Raptors stand during national anthem before playing the Chicago Bulls in their NBA basketball pre-season game at Scotiabank Arena on October 13, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 13: The Toronto Raptors stand during national anthem before playing the Chicago Bulls in their NBA basketball pre-season game at Scotiabank Arena on October 13, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) /
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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 10: Los Angeles Clippers Forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during a NBA preseason game between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers on October 10, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 10: Los Angeles Clippers Forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during a NBA preseason game between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers on October 10, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – First Look:

At first glance when you open up this slate, you are going to notice a few things – first, the massive star power we have for a two-game slate and second is likely the number of injury designations for many of the key players.

The biggest and most recent news is that Zion Williamson will be sidelined for “weeks” which is a big blow to opening night as the prized rookie phenom was likely going to be a popular DFS target. We did get a bit of a sneak peek at what the Pelicans line-up could look like without Zion in it as in their final preseason tune-up the Pelicans rolled out a starting five of Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and Derrick Favors.

The Lakers will remain without Kyle Kuzma but the real story here tonight and every night for the Lakers is going to be how LeBron James and Anthony Davis can co-exist and how it translates to the DFS world.

This teaming of superstars is not going to be anything new to the NBA as we have seen it time and time again in recent years but the one thing we know in NBA DFS is that usage is key and that anytime these high-priced stars are forced to share the ball with other stars on their team, it caps their upside in DFS production.

This is why we jammed in James Harden seemingly every night Chris Paul went down or why we did the same with Russell Westbrook when PG13 was off the court. Of all the tried and true DFS strategies, building off usage is one of the most consistent and with LeBron now being asked to share his role with AD, it is fair to wonder if this duo is “worth it” at their elevated price points with completely new roles.

Look at it this way – last season, LeBron had a team-high 31.1% usage rate in LA while AD posted a Pelicans leading usage rate of 28.3% when he was still suiting up for New Orleans. In a small preseason sample size, LeBron’s usage is down to 28.4% while AD is all the way down to 26.3% and you can scream small sample size all you want, there is only one ball and so it may seem crazy to say but the certainty of a ceiling game from either star is not a given for as long as they share the court.

The one star that won’t have this issue tonight? Kawhi Leonard of the new-look Clippers who will be asked to carry the load while his new teammate Paul George remains out with an injury for the first few weeks of the NBA season. In the preseason, it was the Kawhi show as Leonard put up a massive 37.3% usage rate which was third in the NBA behind only Giannis and Harden which speaks to the role he is likely going to have early on this season.

There are a lot of stars on this opening slate, but Kawhi to me becomes the priority as you get a $1K discount on FantasyDraft from AD and LeBron and the added usage uptick as the lone superstar left on his squad – at least as far as tonight goes. The formula remains simple for me in NBA DFS when we walk about these superstar teams – when Player A is out, load up on Player B – rinse and repeat.