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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Opening night

By Brian Tulloch

TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 13: The Toronto Raptors stand during national anthem before playing the Chicago Bulls in their NBA basketball pre-season game at Scotiabank Arena on October 13, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 13: The Toronto Raptors stand during national anthem before playing the Chicago Bulls in their NBA basketball pre-season game at Scotiabank Arena on October 13, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 18: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans shoots the ball against the New York Knicks during a pre-season game on October 18, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 18: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans shoots the ball against the New York Knicks during a pre-season game on October 18, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Game Stack?

If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know that I am a GPP player only and I believe in thinking through strategy and game theory just as much as finding the “right plays” and with tonight being a short slate you can rest assured that 90% of the plays you think are good – well, everyone else will too.

So how do you try and differentiate? First and foremost is you can take a stand FOR OR AGAINST players and games by stacking and I think here on opening night, that is a viable strategy. While most may look at the three stars in LA and try to build their game stack there, personally I think getting your exposure with Kawhi is more than enough as you can avoid the fringe players looking to get sloppy seconds off whatever the stars leave them in what will likely be a guessing game you won’t win.

Instead, this Pelicans/Raptors game looks like it checks all the boxes for NBA DFS stacking as we have a high total (231) with two of the fastest paces teams and clearly defined starting rotations. If we simply look at the preseason, the Raptors in life without Kawhi were 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Pelicans ranked 5th, which considering this was a team that led the league in pace after the All-Star break should come as no surprise.

Jrue Holiday ($14.5K) is the clear beneficiary of like without AD as we have seen his usage rate spike every time Davis was off the floor and it should come as no surprise that over the last two seasons with AD and Julius Randle (now in NY) that Holiday’s 28% usage rate in nearly 400 minutes of court time was the team-high.

The interesting aspect now is that Jrue can afford to play off-ball more with Lonzo Ball ($10.4K) in the backcourt and while Ball will likely have the ball in his hands a good amount, his sub 20% usage rate in the preseason is likely indicative of what we will see in the regular season.

The key is that without Zion and his 25.2% usage rate from the preseason, the rest of the starting unit is going to be asked to take on more and I think a trio of Holiday, Ball and Brandon Ingram ($11.3K) is an ideal three-man stack on opening night as they are priced for complementary roles around the prized rookie and with their league-high pace, this is the kind of core that can get you ceiling type games for great point per dollar upside.