NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, October 24

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look

While we may only have a three-game NBA DFS slate here tonight, we have a star-studded slate of games that are going to make Stars and Scrubs builds a very popular route. One night after seeing a trio of stars in Kyrie, KAT and Drummond all put up ceiling type games, this looks like another slate where we could have a similar outcome and I think finding the right balance of star power is going to be the key to cashing here tonight.

Looking back at the stars last night that went off, what did they all have in common? The answer very simply is that they were stand-alone studs, players without a second star which allowed them to hit their ceiling and dominate the usage.

With that in mind, I am going to start today by making this declaration – I think we fade James Harden and Russell Westbrook here tonight.

This is not an indictment on the talent or fantasy ceiling of Harden and Westbrook, but the simple fact that of all the stars in play tonight that they are the ONLY ones that are being asked to share the court. Now, all preseason, the Rockets have made it clear they will stagger these two superstars from a rotation perspective but if the preseason was any indication, the truth is that both are going to see their usage rates drop or remain stagnant.

In the preseason, Harden’s 37.7% usage rate was a 2% drop from his numbers in the regular season last year while Westbrook maintained a 30.9% rate which was roughly in line with his output last year sharing the court with Paul George.

Look at this another way, if we operate under the assumption that 350 fantasy points are a necessary target tonight then that means we need to get 3.5x per player on a site like FantasyDraft which means Harden would need 62 fantasy points while Westbrook would need 57.

Are those attainable numbers? Of course, these guys have hit those ceiling games multiple times and would I be shocked if they did it here tonight, not at all!

However, look back just two nights ago at the Lakers with Anthony Davis and LeBron James who went for 51 and 43 fantasy points. Those are certainly solid numbers, but in this day and age of dual superstars and only one ball, I think jamming them in on a small slate when there are high usage solo stars available is a mistake and personally, this fade worked on Tuesday so I am going back to it again here tonight!