Fansided

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, October 25

By Brian Tulloch

DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after play against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 26, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - DECEMBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after play against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 26, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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NBA DFS Picks
BROOKLYN, NY – DECEMBER 23: Devin Booker #1 and Deandre Ayton #22 of the Phoenix Suns high-five during a game against the Brooklyn Nets on December 23, 2018 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look:

One of the most critical aspects of NBA DFS is reacting to pricing inefficiencies and while early season NBA is typically ripe for that, especially on sites like FanDuel where they seem to be perpetually asleep at the wheel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft typically are more on the ball. The one issue that impacts all sites, however, is when news breaks after a slate and pricing are released and while that typically happens hours before lock with injury issues, sometimes we get the news the night before which is exactly the case with the Suns and DeAndre Ayton.

With news that Ayton has a 25 game suspension to begin immediately,  it boosts Devin Booker ($15.4K) to an immediate must play at a price point that does not reflect the impact of Ayton’s absence even in a tough match-up against Denver. Last season with Ayton off the court, not surprisingly, Booker led the team with a 35% usage rate and 1.25 FP/M which represented a 2% usage bump in which his FP/M stayed essentially neutral (0.02 uptick).

Booker did actually play a game last season against Denver in which Ayton was forced to miss, putting up 42 fantasy points scoring 35 real-life points in the process. Booker had a similar outing against the Spurs with Ayton off the floor last season in which he had the same shot volume (19 FGA) but added 12 combined rebounds and assists and 2 steals wich gave him a ceiling game of 57 fantasy points which is the kind of GPP upside you are looking for here tonight.

If you are rostering Booker, you are hoping that the Suns can keep this game close despite the slate high 11 point spread against Denver because you will need a full four quarter of run for Booker to pay off his price tag. As such, the correlation with Nikola Jokic ($17K) on the other side could be a great core GPP strategy, especially with the Suns now missing their cornerstone big man.

Jokic’s first game is not one that stands out at first glance as he amassed only 40 fantasy points against Portland and on a slate with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and LeBron James, there are certainly sexier big men to target. However, consider that Jokic played only 24 minutes in that game due to early foul trouble and still wound up with 20 points and 13 rebounds for an insane 1.67 FP/M output.

If Jokic gets his “average” 31-32 minutes per game, you are looking at a 50+ fantasy point outing with similar FP/M production and this is a match-up that last season, he dropped a tidy little 35-11-11 triple-double on his way to 80+ fantasy points so the ceiling is clearly identifiable.

I mentioned the other big men available and I think this is where we can start to get an edge if Wednesday’s slate was any indication. KAT on that night against the Nets was 71% owned while Jokic against Portland was only 9% and yes, I know that you needed KAT on that night but if you can get that kind of leverage on the field here tonight in a match-up where Jokic has slate leading upside, I think it becomes an ideal pivot off the KAT chalk.

While this Jokic-Booker duo is going to be pricey, you can help offset it with a minimum priced started like Aron Baynes ($6K) who will likely see the lions share of minutes with Ayton out of the picture for the Suns interior.