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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, October 26

By Brian Tulloch

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 10: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts in front of Joel Embiid #21 and Furkan Korkmaz #30 of the Philadelphia 76ers after receiving a technical foul in the fourth quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on December 10, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Pistons 116-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 10: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts in front of Joel Embiid #21 and Furkan Korkmaz #30 of the Philadelphia 76ers after receiving a technical foul in the fourth quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on December 10, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Pistons 116-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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NBA DFS Picks
PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 10: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts in front of Joel Embiid #21 and Furkan Korkmaz #30 of the Philadelphia 76ers after receiving a technical foul in the fourth quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on December 10, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Pistons 116-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look:

We have a big first Saturday of NBA DFS action with nine games on the schedule and some interesting overall themes that stand out at first look. First off, we have three games with 225+ game totals but all three of those games have double-digit spreads as the Clippers, Rockets and Bucks are all heavily favored with the Clippers and Rockets specifically getting to take on teams on the tail end of a back to back.

Secondly, we have some major injury news to watch already with the Sixers listing Joel Embiid as questionable tonight against Andre Drummond and the Pistons. Obviously, Embiid sitting out would push Ben Simmons ($16.3K) and Tobias Harris ($12.2K) into near must plays as both players were the clear team leaders in usage when Embiid was off the floor last season with Simmons putting up 1.3 FP/M and Harris seeing a 7% usage boost while putting up 1.15 FP/M.

Al Horford ($11.4K) and Josh Richardson ($9.9K) both were locked into 30+ minutes in the opener and we saw last year that guys like JJ Reddick as an example would get boosts when Embiid was off the court last year, so we could apply the same logic to thse Sixers secondary plays IF Embiid does sit.

The one question that could be key here – how would the Sixers line up if Embiid sat out? Could we get Kyle O’Quinn ($6.2K) night one week into the season? Will the Sixers shift Horford to Center and plug in Mike Scott ($6.2K) at PF?

Looking back at the first game against Boston, when Embiid was out of the game, especially down the stretch in the 4th quarter, they opted to move Horford to Center against a small Boston lineup and plug in Matisse Thybulle ($6.4K) alongside Horford, Simmons, Tobias and Richardson. Against Drummond, would they be able to get away with that?

The absence of Embiid would also boost the fantasy prospects of Andre Drummond ($17.8K) who has been the entirety of the Pistons offense early in the season with Detroit down Blake Griffin. The Pistons may also be down starting PG Reggie Jackson who has struggled with back issues over the first two games which could push Derrick Rose ($9.9K) into the starting lineup.

This game overall is an interesting one as if Embiid is in, it becomes just another game for me but if he is out, then I think it becomes an ideal game stack with the pricing how it sets up on FantasyDraft.

As an example, you can run out a four man stack of Simmons, Tobias, Horford and Richardson and run it back with Drummond and Rose on the other side of this game and you still have $11.2K on FantasyDraft for the last two plays on your roster.

To put that in perspective, that means you could put in players like Lonzo Ball or Dejounte Murray to be the last two types of plays into that build.

Thankfully this is the first game of the night so we can get some clarity prior to lock (hopefully) on Embiid’s status because if he is out, I think this becomes the perfect game stack that gives you enough salary relief to play a one-off stud around them