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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, October 31

By Brian Tulloch

Jon Lester (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty images)
Jon Lester (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty images) /
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NBA DFS Picks
SAN ANTONIO, TX – JANUARY 3: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors sits on the bench during a time-out against the San Antonio Spurs at AT&T Center on January 3, 2019 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look:

We have a three-game NBA DFS slate here on Halloween which considering I will be out with my kids most of the day is very much appreciated by this time-constrained father on my kid’s favorite day of the year – yes, they like it more than Christmas – hot takes galore.

If you read Picks and Pivots with any regularity, you know that I am a huge believer in taking stands on these small slates and overly game stacking. As my fellow writer, Thunder Dan likes to point out, “you know you can play guys without stacking right?” Hogwash I say!

The first game on this slate is the Hawks/Heat, a rematch of the game played just two nights ago with one very noticeable change – the absence of Trae Young. When Young injured his ankle on Tuesday and left the game with 9:57 to go in the second quarter, the Hawks were down by 5 and proceeded to be outscored by another 10 points for the rest of the game in what ended as a 112-97 defeat.

While Vegas only has Atlanta as a 6 point underdog here tonight, I think the blowout risk is VERY real as the Hawks without Young simply have no way to keep pace with teams offensively. In the 2+ quarters that Young was out on Tuesday, the only player who put up over a FP/M of production was John Collins ($15.1K) who was forced to carry the load on his way to 50+ fantasy points.

On a slate where we don’t have any Nerlens Noel type punt value as we did last night, I think salary really is going to be the key decision point tonight and while Collins no doubt will have more usage, he is also priced for his ceiling game.

The overwhelming narrative today will certainly be Kawhi Leonard ($17.6K) in a REVENGE game against his form Spurs team. After sitting out due to load management last night, Kawhi will be the one Clippers player that is fully rested on the tail end of a back to back and I think he needs to be THE stud you lock in tonight.

Sure, go ahead and quote last year’s game logs against the Spurs where Kawhi put up only 41 and 32 fantasy points and fade based off that if you want to but the truth is, Raptors Kawhi and Clippers Kawhi without Paul George are two different DFS entities.

Kawhis’s 37% usage rate this season is top 3 in the NBA and a massive spike over the 30% rate he had last season on a much deeper Raptors team so you are not playing Kawhi here tonight because of the narrative (says the guy who loves narratives), you are playing him because he is a fully rested superstar getting league-leading usage on a night he may be asked to do even more.