Fantasy football lineup advice: Week 12 boom or bust
Fantasy Football – Running Back
Boom: Nick Chubb, CLE vs. MIA
Earlier in the season, this pick would seem like a no-brainer, but Chubb owners who feared the worst with Kareem Hunt back in the lineup have seen his role (especially in the passing game) somewhat decrease. It’s been rough-sledding for the bruising ball-carrier over the past four weeks, failing to top 14.1 fantasy points in any game. To be fair, Chubb has endured some brutal matchups – NE, DEN, BUF, and PIT – three of which are top-nine teams against RBs.
This week, it should be back to business for Chubb against the 2-8 Dolphins. Miami has given up the second-most rushing yards in the league this season and won’t have an answer for the Browns’ run-game. Even with Hunt in the mix, Chubb has handled an average of 22.3 carries per game. This is the perfect get-right spot for sophomore tailback and there will be plenty of work for both he and Hunt to do damage. Don’t even think about benching him.
Boom: Derrius Guice, WSH vs. DET
This one is tricky as we haven’t yet seen Guice with a hefty workload since returning from injury. However, he’s by far the most talented back on the Redskins’ roster, and the team should look to give him some extended run down the stretch this season in the midst of their youth movement. Last week in his first game back, the LSU product handled just seven carries, but displayed eye-popping explosiveness on a 45-yard catch and run for a touchdown.
This is a welcoming matchup for Guice to get things going on the ground, as the Lions have handed the RB spot 32 FPPGG (most in the NFL) and have surrendered a lofty 17 touchdowns to the position. Last week, Detroit allowed the Cowboys’ running back duo to go for three scores, each posting over 17 fantasy points. Even if Adrian Peterson remains a factor in Washington’s backfield, there’ll be plenty of points to go around. Guice carries some risk, but offers owners a high ceiling in Week 12.
Honorable Mention: Jaylen Samuels (PIT @ CIN), David Montgomery (CHI vs. NYG)
Bust: Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT
After an appalling start to the season, Mixon has shown signs of life by scoring at least 17 fantasy points in each of his past three contests. The Bengals have leaned on him more-heavily with rookie Ryan Finley under center, allowing him to accrue 100+ all-purpose yards in both games since Finley took the starting gig from Andy Dalton. Still, this offense is still far below average, and better defenses will sell out to limit Mixon and make the rookie air it out. Cincinnati’s o-line is still a glaring issue as well, something that’s not going to change anytime soon.
Mixon and the Bengals will square off with the division-rival Steelers for the second time in 2019. In their first meeting, Mixon managed just 63 total yards. It hasn’t been pretty for running backs lately against Pittsburgh – they’ve yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season and their 3.7 YPC allowed is fifth-best in the league. The Steelers’ front-seven has looked as stout as any lately, making this matchup you’ll want to avoid.
Bust: Royce Freeman, DEN @ BUF
Freeman has drawn the short end of the stick in Denver’s backfield-by-committee in recent weeks. It’s clear that Phillip Lindsay is the RB1A on this offense, as the team has slowly increased his workload each game. Because of this, Freeman has been left fighting for scraps, having not seen double-digit carries since Week 8. In turn, his fantasy scores have plummeted to under four points per game since.
With the Broncos traveling to Buffalo, they’ll need to stick to their ground-game and avoid the Bills’ top-five ranked secondary to see any sort of success. The Bills’ front-seven remains a problem for them, proving vulnerable to the run on several accounts throughout the year (bottom-half in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs). Lindsay may have a nice afternoon, but Freeman should only be viewed as a startable asset in the deepest of leagues. Even then, his receding role makes him difficult to trust.
Dishonorable Mention: Ronald Jones II (TB @ ATL), Brian Hill (ATL vs. TB)
Sleeper: Bo Scarbrough, DET @ WSH
The former Crimson Tide running back was insterted directly into the starting lineup for the first time in his career last week after being activated from the Lions’ practice squad, taking 14 carries for 55 yards and a score. He should see another healthy carry total versus Washington, who’ve ceded the fourth-most YPG to running backs.