Is Mark Andrews poised to be a 2020 fantasy football disappointment?

Mark Andrews had a breakout second season with the Baltimore Ravens at tight end. Is there statistical evidence that might indicate regression in 2020?

The Baltimore Ravens had one of the most exciting offenses in football last year. Quarterback Lamar Jackson was named NFL MVP, unanimously. The Ravens earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs but weren’t able to win a playoff game. For them to contend for a Super Bowl again next season, they’ll need a great third season out of tight end Mark Andrews.

Andrews won the John Mackey Award in 2017 with the Oklahoma Sooners. After a solid rookie season in 2018, Andrews broke out in a big way in 2019. He had 64 catches for 82 yards and 10 touchdowns. Andrews made his first career trip to the Pro Bowl. While he had a top-six season in fantasy, is he poised for a fantasy football disappointment in 2020?

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Mike Wright of The Fantasy Footballers mentions a few points why Andrews could be in for a letdown season in 2020. His biggest critique of Andrews’ season was him playing on fewer than 50 percent of Baltimore’s offensive plays. Was he dealing with injuries throughout the season that caused him to miss plays or was it a schematic issue that kept him off the field so much?

The other point that Wright brought up is that touchdowns vary year-to-year. While getting 10 touchdown grabs in 2019 was sensational, we’re more likely to Andrews haul in half-a-dozen touchdown catches than see him hit double figures again. Then again, he does seem to have quite the rapport with Jackson, so that is something to consider, too.

Given that Andrews was both a strong performer in fantasy and a consistent one at that, does this mean you should look to draft him accordingly? If you want to draft him with the belief that he’ll be a top-six tight end again, then you’re more than welcomed to do that. He should come off the board in that range, but he shouldn’t be drafted any higher than that.

All we know is that Andrews had a fantastic second season in the league. One could argue this might be the new normal for him in Greg Roman’s offense with Jackson slinging him the ball. However, Andrews getting to 10 touchdowns again is probably not going to happen. He’s good enough to be your TE1 in 2020, but it’s likely to be on the lower-end of the spectrum.