Don’t expect Gennadiy Golovkin to beat Canelo Alvarez in third bout

Numerous sources believe that Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin are headed for a third bout, but don’t expect GGG to win.

On March 17, The Athletic was the first outlet to report that Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin have verbally agreed to a third bout. The pair’s first fight resulted in a close split-draw, and Alvarez won the rematch via majority decision. Recent history suggests that Golovkin doesn’t stand much of a chance winning in a third bout against Alvarez.

For the moment, the worldwide coronavirus pandemic has put all plans in doubt. Originally, Alvarez was supposed to fight Billy Joe Saunders in May, but that fight has been postponed to June and may eventually be canceled altogether. Golovkin was supposed to fight Kamil Szeremeta on several different occasions and was moved back to June 6. That fight is also questionable due to COVID-19, but Alvarez vs. Golovkin III is still the most popular bout for both men.

Who knows if Alvarez vs. Golovkin III will go down on Sept. 12 as rumored, but GGG likely missed his golden opportunity for a victory over Alvarez.

Their first fight in 2017 ended as a split-draw, which could be seen as a controversial decision. According to CompuBox stats (via BoxingScene.com), Golovkin landed 218 total punches to Alvarez’s 169. To be fair, Alvarez connected on four more power punches than Golovkin and was slightly more accurate with a 33.5 percent connect percentage to Golovkin’s 31 percent.

The numbers were close, but many feel like Golovkin deserved the win because he outworked Alvarez.

In the rematch, Golovkin looked slightly diminished.

Alvarez flipped the script and brought the fight to Golovkin in their rematch. Golovkin tried to box Alvarez, which proved to be a mistake. The CompuBox numbers were still close but favored Alvarez.

Golovkin landed 234 total punches to Alvarez’s 202, but Alvarez was much more accurate, connecting on 33.5 percent of his shots compared to Golovkin’s 26.6 percent. Also, Alvarez widened the gap in power punches landed from their first fight. He connected with 143 power punches to Golovkin’s 116. It was close, but enough for Alvarez to walk away with a majority decision.

If they fight for a third time, count on Alvarez winning a lopsided contest. Some sports brokerages are already posting fight odds that favor Alvarez. They see what the CompuBox stats show, which is that Golovkin has declined steadily as a boxer since his first bout with Alvarez in 2017.

In Golovkin’s last fight against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, Golovkin’s physical abilities looked eroded. He’s still skillful and powerful, as he demonstrated when dropping Derevyanchenko in round 1, but as the bout continued, he wore down.

Golovkin remained busy connecting more than Derevyanchenko by 13 punches, but Derevyanchenko landed 47 more power punches and beat Golovkin up towards the end of the fight.

Golovkin’s speed, reflexes, and endurance have taken a hit as he has aged. If he fights Alvarez in September, he will be 38 years old, eight and a half years older than Alvarez. Alvarez is still peaking, and Golovkin is dwindling.

Golovkin is still getting used to life with new trainer Johnathon Banks. After two fights with Banks in his corner, Golovkin looks more vulnerable than ever. Also, Golovkin tried a new training regimen with Victor Conte at his SNAC training facility, but ESPN reported in February that Golovkin was asked to leave because he wasn’t following Conte’s advice.

Golovkin’s injuries, training inconsistencies and age spell trouble for him in a third bout with Alvarez. It gives him the biggest payday but also increases the chances of retirement. If Golovkin has to go out, he might as well make as much money as possible.