Trading Trevor Bauer isn’t the answer for the Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are straddling the line of being a trade deadline buyer or seller, but trading Trevor Bauer doesn’t seem like the answer.

The Cincinnati Reds swept a doubleheader against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday. With 13-17 record, they are not far out of a playoff spot heading into a four-game weekend series against the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs. Ace Trevor Bauer is scheduled to start one of the games of Saturday’s doubleheader.

Compared to his body of work this season, Bauer’s last start looks bad. He allowed four runs (two home runs) to the Brewers over 6.1 innings, with eight strikeouts and two walks. His ERA rose to 1.65 for the season, with 49 strikeouts (13.5 K/9) and nine walks (2.5 BB/9) over 32.2 innings (five starts).

Bauer is also pitching on a one-year deal, as has been his prerogative in lieu of signing a multi-year deal before being eligible for free agency. He will be a free agent after the season. It all adds up to him being a possible trade chip for the Reds ahead of Monday’s deadline.

But a look at the National League standings tells a different story. Entering Friday’s action, just six NL teams are above .500 and one other (the St. Louis Cardinals) is exactly .500 (11-11). If the Reds sweep the Cubs, they would go from five games back of the division lead to one game back. Even winning three of four would take an important chunk out of the deficit. If things go the other direction, with a sweep or a taking of three of four by the Cubs, the Reds may quickly shift into full-on sell mode come Monday. High-end contenders with interest in Bauer are Cubs’ fans this weekend.

The Reds don’t have to feel urgency to move Trevor Bauer, yet

FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 49.9 percent chance to make the postseason entering Friday. Baseball-Reference (23.5 percent) and ESPN (30.3 percent) aren’t quite as optimistic, but that only reinforces the importance of the series against the Cubs. At a minimum, the Reds can’t lose ground to other playoff contenders and more narrowly on a .500 record.

The Reds being resigned to trading Bauer is an easy and convenient idea. But, at least for a few days if at all, they aren’t under pressure to do anything drastic.