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College football DFS picks November 17: How to handle blowouts

By Mike Marteny

Dec 20, 2019; Frisco, TX, USA; Kent State Golden Flashes quarterback Dustin Crum (14) scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Utah State Aggies during the Frisco Bowl at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 20, 2019; Frisco, TX, USA; Kent State Golden Flashes quarterback Dustin Crum (14) scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Utah State Aggies during the Frisco Bowl at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
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AMHERST, NY – OCTOBER 26: Buffalo Bulls Running Back Jaret Patterson (26) runs with the ball during the first half of the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Buffalo Bulls on October 26, 2019, at UB Stadium in Amherst, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

College football DFS running back picks November 17:

Top Tier:

I still think that Jaret Patterson is the one guy on this slate that we need to pay for. Depending on the risks you’re willing to take, you can still get Crum or Vantrease with him, but you’ll have to work at it. Patterson is even more important with Tuggle and Ohio off the slate. The gap is much larger at the top of the RB class.

Middle Tier:

Next you have Terion Stewart against Buffalo’s top 20 run defense. This is obviously not an ideal matchup, but Stewart was the lone bright spot on the Bowling Green offense against a solid Kent defense. He should still at least flirt with 20 DraftKings points. If you are expecting a blowout like Vegas suggests, Patterson doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as normal since he will likely get some rest. That makes Stewart a huge leverage play in GPP formats.

Marquez Cooper has been the most successful Kent back through two games, but that’s not saying much. He only has 111 yards on 31 carries. His two touchdowns on the ground last week rescued his score, but that also means Cooper is more touchdown dependent than I want for a guy priced in the middle tier.

We all saw (or you read above) what Stewart did to Kent’s run defense last week. Teon Dollard had a big game against a solid Ohio front last week. This Kent front isn’t really anywhere near that. We could see a slate breaker from Dollard here, especially for his price. Want more proof? Dollard has 34.4 DraftKings points over two games against solid defenses without scoring a touchdown. He’ll cross that threshold at some point, likely in this game.

Bargain Shoppers:

Even if Andrew Clair returns, I don’t see him unseating Stewart. Stewart was the spark the Falcons lacked for the first six quarters of the season. However, a Clair return could cut into Stewart’s production. This is still something to keep an eye on.

Kevin Marks is my favorite value pick of the slate again. He could have a nice game in garbage time once Buffalo rests Patterson. Of course, Buffalo could elect to rest Marks as well since he is a big part of the normal game plan. That makes the risk a little higher than I like, but the upside makes him worth a GPP dart.

Your other options for value plays is the zoo that is the Kent backfield. Bryan Bradford does a lot in few carries. He has 185 rushing yards on only 25 carries. If he finds the end zone, he’ll wind up being a big steal. The Flashes seem to have phased out Xavier Williams, who led the team in rushing week 1. Good luck with this. This is all the more reason Cooper is the least stable of the higher priced backs.