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College football picks against the spread: How to bet Week 12’s biggest games

By Nick Villano

Nov 7, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws during the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws during the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports /
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College football picks against the spread
Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Indiana Hoosiers (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

No. 9  Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5)

What the heck is this line? Not only has Indiana won every game they’ve played this season, but they are a nation-best 4-0 against the spread. No other team is undefeated against the spread with at least four wins. Yet, they come into this game as a three-touchdown underdog.

Last week, oddsmakers gave Ohio State too many points against Rutgers, and the Scarlett Knights failed to cover. This feels like the same exact situation. Ohio State is really good and totally deserves a spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, but Indiana is no slouch. There’s a reason they are in the top 10. Sure, that Penn State win looks worse and worse each week, and the Michigan win is also losing value with every Big Blue loss, but Indiana is getting better each week on their own.

Ohio State’s number one goal is going to be stopping Michael Penix Jr. They already said they want to make him “uncomfortable”.

The question here is how can the Hoosiers handle the pressure. Nobody expected anything from them up until now. Now, they are in the top ten and playing in the biggest matchup on the college football slate. They are on the road against the Big Ten powerhouse with a Heisman Trophy candidate under center. Justin Fields can carve up any defense. Can Indiana stop him at all?

The Penix-Fields matchup will decide this game. There are a lot of talented players on both sides, but the quarterbacks need to get the ball there. Fields is the superior player, but Penix has the agility to get away from pressure and make plays. His chemistry with senior wide receiver Ty Fryfogle could prove fruitful if this turns into a backyard football game.

This feels like an Ohio State win, but Indiana is going to beat the spread.

Pick: Indiana (+20.5)

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