College football picks against the spread: How to bet Week 13’s biggest games

College football picks against the spread for Week 13’s biggest games, including the Iron Bowl rivalry game between Auburn and Alabama who will be without Nick Saban.

This week, there is no “marquee” matchup in college football, but after the Thanksgiving turkey has been cut and eaten and the mashed potatoes and green bean casserole has been put away for leftovers, just about every Top 25 team is facing an underdog looking to make headlines with a major upset. There are some huge rivalry games, like the Iron Bowl and the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry that need a new name after dropping the “Civil War” moniker.

There are a few teams that missed the opportunity to make major noise due to game postponements. Oklahoma was set to head to Morgantown to face a WVU team that’s never lost at home this season. Cincinnati was looking to bolster its playoff resumè heading to Philadelphia to face Temple. Wisconsin was looking to bounce back against a Minnesota team that stormed the Big Ten last season. None of those games will happen due to COVID cases on one of the two teams.

This is the first week we have actual College Football Playoff rankings, and there are some fan bases with legitimate gripes. Ohio State was not happy they saw themselves as the fourth team despite Clemson having a loss. All the undefeated teams outside of Cincinnati (Marshall, Coastal Carolina, and BYU) were basically told they have little to no chance to make the Playoff without something insane happening. The Cougars are behind both the Sooners and Iowa State on their road to relevance.

This week, the goal is to predict the matchups with the most upside for finding the underdog winners. There will be at least three. Last week, NC State and Northwestern played spoiler. Indiana came very close. This is the goal of every bettor this week.

All lines from the William Hill Sportsbook.

College football picks against the spread for Week 13

Nebraska at No. 24 Iowa (-13.5)

There are four ranked matchups on Friday this week that are evenly distributed across the day. If you’re not shopping (or online shopping) the action starts at noon and goes until 10 p.m. with little or no interruption. This Iowa-Nebraska matchup starts at 1 p.m., but with another bad Cornhuskers team in front of them, this should be a clear win for the Hawkeyes by 2:30.  After two losses to start the season, Iowa has beaten its last three opponents by an average of 30 points. Nebraska was able to keep things close with Northwestern, but that won’t happen this week.

Pick: Iowa (-13.5)

Texas Tech at No. 23 Oklahoma State (-11)

Oklahoma State was hanging on to the Big 12 lead by a thread, and Oklahoma knocked that dream out of reality last week with a drubbing. Now, they need to re-establish themselves against the druthers of the Big 12. Texas Tech has been feisty, but this should be out of their league. The health of Spencer Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are key in the Cowboys covering this spread. If they are closer to 100 percent than not, then this should be an easy cover.

Pick: Oklahoma State (-11)

No. 20 Coastal Carolina (-17) at Texas State

Coastal Carolina was likely not happy when the College Football Playoff rankings came out, especially coming off their biggest win of the season against Appalachian State. With only three games left on their schedule, ending in the Top 15 is probably the best the Chanticleers can expect this season. Texas State has been playing much better as of late and even beat Arkansas State last week. However, Coastal Carolina is motivated and in a different tier than Texas State.

Pick: Coastal Carolina (-17)

Colorado at No. 18 USC (-13.5)

The Pac 12 likely have their own beef with the College Football Playoff rankings, with an undefeated USC and Oregon sitting far away from the top 10. The oddsmakers gave USC just under those two touchdowns to draw bettors in. They had a big win against Utah, but this isn’t the Utah teams of old. Colorado, on the other hand, also comes into this matchup without a loss. The Buffaloes have literally never beaten USC, so this could be history. USC was able to cause a lot of turnovers against the Utes, but Colorado ran the ball on 65 percent of plays. That kind of ball control will lead to a much closer matchup.

Pick: Colorado (+13.5)

No. 15 Oregon (-13) at Oregon State

Another line that’s just under two touchdowns in favor of the favorites. Once upon a time, the Beavers were the bain of the Ducks’ existence, but that hasn’t really been the case. Oregon has won 11 of the last 12 matchups. In the last three, they won by more than two touchdowns. This season, Tyler Shough has been asked to do more than probably expected under center. Teams are going all out to stop Oregon’s run, but it hasn’t led to wins. The Beavers haven’t been great this season, and Oregon is just so talented, so a defensive touchdown by Noah Sewell will lead to an easy cover.

Pick: Oregon (-13)

No. 13 Iowa State at No. 17 Texas (-2)

This might be the best matchup of the week in terms of actual game quality. Both Texas and Iowa State are still in the hunt to make the Big 12 Title Game. If the Cyclones win this game, it’s probably a shoo-in to make it. Texas needs a little help, but if they win this game they won’t need a ton. Both of these offenses can absolutely go off, with Brock Purdy leading a 45-point effort against Kansas State last week. Breece Hall is looking to win the game on the ground, as the only 1,000-yard rusher in the sport right now. He can lead Iowa State to a cheap cover.

Pick: Iowa State (+2)

Maryland at No. 12 Indiana (-14)

Maryland has been waiting weeks to play after games against Ohio State and Michigan State were both canceled. Two different COVID-19 clusters caused the team to stop its momentum in its tracks. Now facing one of the better teams in the Big Ten, the Terrapins hope Taulia Tagovailoa can continue to throw like he was before the pause. Indiana is coming off a close loss to Ohio State, and Michael Penix was the best player on the field. He outplayed Justin Fields, but he came up just short. That disappointment will bleed into this game, and a slow start will let Maryland keep this game close.

Pick: Maryland (+14)

No. 9 Georgia (-19.5) at South Carolina

Georgia was given a lot of flack after they were in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings despite losing to both Florida and Alabama. JT Daniels finally got the start for the Bulldogs after seeing Stetson Bennett and D’Wan Mathis getting snaps after Jamie Newman opted out. He looked good, and now he’s rocketing up draft boards, but the coaching staff still doesn’t seem completely convinced. Something is off with the Bulldogs, and giving them close to 20 points is a scary proposition right now.

Pick: South Carolina (+19.5)

No. 8 Northwestern (-11.5) at Michigan State

It’s hard to figure out how good Northwestern actually is after a big win against Wisconsin. One thing is for sure in this matchup; Michigan State is bad. This line feels like it’s about two points too low. An eighth ranking seems a little high for the Wildcats after three straight one-possession wins, but if they are anywhere near what the committee thinks, this should be a three-touchdown win.

Pick: Northwestern (-11.5)

Kentucky at No. 6 Florida (-24)

Kentucky watched as Alabama blew the doors off last week to the tune of 63-3. Florida’s offense is even better than Alabama’s. Kyle Trask will look to bolster his Heisman resumè against a rival. Tight end Kyle Pitts will return to the field, and he will look to put himself on the map even more. These two players could are enough to cover this spread on their own. Add in a good defense taking on a weak Kentucky offense, and this should be the pick of the week.

Pick: Florida (-24)

LSU at No. 5 Texas A&M (-14)

LSU is the biggest disappointment in college football this season, but with all the losses from last year’s team, it should have been predicted. Texas A&M, on the other hand, has been one of the pleasant surprises this season. Kellen Mond has done well to win games for his team and Jimbo Fisher is finally coaching up to his contract. This is the first time they will actually face one of the top teams in the SEC after games against Alabama and Florida were postponed. LSU wants to make a statement, but they just don’t have the weapons.

Pick: Texas A&M (-14)

No. 4 Ohio State (-28) at Illinois

This is obviously a big line, and Ohio State really struggled with turnovers last week against Indiana, but Justin Fields isn’t usually prone to back-to-back weak performances. After a really bad start to the season, Illinois rolled off two-straight wins. Still, this team is nowhere near in the same league as Ohio State. The Buckeyes will run up the score knowing the committee is looking at its every move.

Pick: Ohio State (-28)

Pittsburgh at No. 3 Clemson (-26.5)

Pitt is a strange team. They won their first three games before losing four in a row. Now, they are back on a winning streak heading into their matchup with Clemson. The Tigers were ready to bounce back last week against Florida State before the Seminoles canceled the game with Clemson basically in the parking lot. They spent the week pining about the missed game. Will that distraction hurt them in this game? How about waiting three weeks to avenge a Notre Dame loss? This feels like a complete stay away, but with the confusion, take the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+26.5)

No. 2 Notre Dame (-5) at No. 19 North Carolina

This game is worth everything for Notre Dame. A couple of easy matchups with Syracuse and Wake Forest would be the only thing that stands between them and the College Football Playoff if they win this game. This isn’t exactly an easy win. North Carolina was once ranked fifth in the country. Sam Howell is still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country. North Carolina underestimated lesser opponents, and that’s why they are where they are. Notre Dame is only getting five points. It might be a gut feeling, but it feels like the Fighting Irish play this game too safe, and North Carolina hits two or three big plays to win the game.

Pick: North Carolina (+5)

No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (-24.5)

This line is wild. This is still the Iron Bowl. Auburn has struggled this season, but they have an offense that can at least put up points on Alabama’s defense. Bo Nix has been inconsistent this season. When he’s good, the Tigers win. It’s that simple. When he’s bad, they lose. Nix threw three interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers were sent home with a loss. Alabama’s defense can throw nix for a loop, but last year Auburn had a really good game plan to keep Nix from losing the game last year. This is a better Crimson Tide team that is looking to bolster their playoff resumè, although a simple win would be enough to keep them at number one until the SEC Title Game. This line is close to exactly right if these two teams didn’t have the rivalry they have, but only once in the 123-year history of this rivalry did these two teams come in ranked and one won by at least 25 points. There’s also the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss the game as a result, so that pushes it towards Auburn.

Pick: Auburn (+24.5)

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