The Eagles acquisition of Gardner Minshew is notable, but the fantasy breakout bandwagon for Jalen Hurts should remain full.
In keeping with their desire to be a “quarterback factory,” the Philadelphia Eagles pushed all other possible suitors aside to acquire Gardner Minshew from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nick Mullens was let go to make room, and Minshew joins Joe Flacco on the depth chart behind Jalen Hurts.
Head coach Nick Sirianni has been slow to anoint Hurts as the Eagles’ starting quarterback, even leaving the door open for Flacco to win the job at one point. But it’s all come off a facade to make Hurts earn the job, and the acquisition of Minshew isn’t any different.
In a broader way though, it makes sense for the Eagles to carry three capable quarterbacks into a season where navigating COVID-19 protocols creates natural uncertainty.
Don’t jump off the Jalen Hurts fantasy bandwagon
As rookie last season, Hurts started and finished three games. Here’s what he did in each, with his fantasy finish among quarterbacks.
Week 14: 167 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 106 rushing yards-QB13
Week 15: 338 passing yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 63 rushing yards, 1 TD-QB1
Week 16: 342 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 69 rushing yards-QB12
From Week 13-17, encompassing all five games he played more than 25 snaps, Hurts was QB8 in fantasy.
A search of “Jalen Hurts fantasy” (and surely anything along that line) on Twitter shows a good dose of people (fantasy analysts even) jumping off the bandwagon already.
Gardner Minshew probably starts at least 5 games for Philly this season.
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) August 28, 2021
Bad news is… it’s likely to happen at the end of the season when Pretend GM’s need Jalen Hurts in the fantasy playoffs.
I’ve been down on Jalen Hurts. But now I’m OUT.
There was almost no chance that the Eagles would pull the starting job from Jalen Hurts for Joe Flacco. But Gardner Minshew is younger with a lot of unknowns surrounding his game.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 28, 2021
This hurts Jalen Hurts in fantasy football and makes his likelihood of starting 17 games go down. https://t.co/M74wKhSjgi
Granted, being a running quarterback puts Hurts at greater risk for injury and that adds risk for fantasy managers. But that risk was already there, and it’s independent of the Eagles acquiring Minshew, his being a likely upgrade over Flacco and/or a bigger threat to take the starting job. The idea Minshew will start five games (or one) this season without Hurts being injured is ludicrous.
Fantasy managers who have already drafted Hurts (raising my hand) surely drafted a solid second quarterback to cover the risk of injury (Matt Ryan in my case). Those with drafts still to come can now keep an eye on a dip in Hurts’ ADP, and buy the value if (when) it comes to fruition. Actually, the dip in his ADP has already been happening (via Fantasy Football Calculator).
ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator
The top-5/10 upside (among quarterbacks) is still here, and those who calmly assess the situation will stand pat on what they thought of Hurts 24 hours ago–and surely not suddenly be all the way out.
Remember, there should be no such thing as a totally undraftable player in fantasy–just a player that doesn’t look like good value at his ADP and thus is someone to avoid. Hurts is now a looming value, more than he was before as he possibly drifts into high-end QB2 ADP range for 12-team leagues.