NBA season preview: One crucial stat for every NBA team
Denver Nuggets: Opponent Rim Efficiency
The Nuggets have already been dealt a bad hand for the upcoming season with Jamal Murray projected to be sidelined throughout with a torn ACL. And yet, Denver should still be competitive in the brutal Western Conference with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr.
With Murray, the Nuggets are one of a handful of championship favorites. Without him, they’re a capable team that could make it to the playoffs and maybe to the second round. The biggest question mark for this team — one worth asking even if Murray were available ‚— is if they can keep opponents from shooting the league’s best rate at the rim.
For all of Jokic’s superb talents, he struggles to serve as the sole rim protector in the Nuggets’ preferred small-ball lineups. Opponents shot 68 percent at the rim last season and shot better from both the midrange and outside with Jokic on the court by a substantial margin.
The Nuggets, intentionally or otherwise, have limited options to fortify their interior defense both when Jokic rests and plays. Bol Bol, the third-year seven-footer from Oregon, can block shots but often fails to double as a reliable help defender inside. JaMychal Green, the sage veteran brought on for his outside shooting, doesn’t have the size or athleticism to be a defensive stalwart.
Denver won’t be a superb interior defensive team again this season, but going from dead last to mediocre should provide them with additional wins that can begin to offset the lost productivity from Murray’s absence.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Effective field-goal percentage
Minnesota’s struggles last season can be well-summarized: their highest usage players shot the ball poorly from all over the floor.
The T-Wolves had one of the league’s most efficient shot profiles as a team, but shot three percentage points worse than expected, per Cleaning the Glass.
Anthony Edwards, in traditional rookie fashion, shot poorly from everywhere on the floor. D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns both shot well from outside but struggled inside the paint. Naz Reid and Malik Beasley were the only players with above-average usage rates that also scored at an above-average efficiency.
If Minnesota shoots the ball better they could contend for the play-in tournament. If not, it could be another long winter in Minneapolis.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Offensive four factors
The Thunder need improvement, well, everywhere. They were the league’s worst offense and fourth-worst defense last season, with a net rating of minus-11.
Specifically, they’ll need to improve their offensive efficiency, turnover rate, and free-throw rate to get their offense to be competitive.
The Thunder shot 51.4 percent from the floor last season, slightly better than the lowly Cavaliers and Magic. They turned the ball over on 16 percent of possessions, only better than those Cavaliers. And, Oklahoma City made 17.1 free throws per 100 field goals last season, only better than the Bulls.
If the Thunder are looking to be competitive this upcoming season, they’ll need to improve in one or more of these areas.
Portland Trail Blazers: Halfcourt defense
Portland, per usual, has a lot of questions to answer this season. With first-year head coach Chauncey Billups at the helm and a nearly healthy roster around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, the Blazers have every reason to make noise this season.
And yet, they’ll need to find a defensive identity to complement their best-in-class offense if they expect to advance beyond an early postseason exit.
The Blazers were a poor defensive team in all situations last season, allowing a point per play in the halfcourt and on second-chance opportunities, and 1.23 points per play in transition, per Cleaning the Glass. However, their transition defense, 15th best league-wide, was far superior to their 29th-ranked halfcourt defense.
Last season, 80 percent of opponent possessions came in the halfcourt, a below-average rate. We should expect this figure to hold or regress towards the mean since teams aren’t looking to maximize opponent transition opportunities. If roster health and staff changes don’t improve the Blazers’ defensive efficiency, and opponents spend more of their time attacking their set defense, Portland has a slim chance of making it to the postseason.
Utah Jazz: Turnover rate
The Jazz won more games by wider margins than any other team last season. And yet, they fell short of a trip to the conference finals.
Last year’s Jazz team had the league’s third-best offense and best defense, built on winning individual battles within the game on the glass and at the free-throw line.
While this Jazz team has likely reached its ceiling, there is an area of improvement that may allow them to transcend into a true contender, particularly in a season when the Western Conference is up for grabs.
The Jazz generated the fewest turnovers of any team last season and turned the ball over on 14 percent of their possessions — a rate that was only offset by their strong 27 percent offensive rebound rate.
Were Utah to maintain their overall profile from last season as a well-rounded offensive and defensive group, and to flip the turnover differential in their favor, maybe that could be the key to unlocking their potential as a championship contender.