NBA season preview: One crucial stat for every NBA team

Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry-less minutes

Curry was an MVP candidate and once again one of the league’s most impactful players last season. His Estimated Plus-Minus, an all-up metric to estimate a player’s complete on-court impact, was 6.8, in the 99th percentile, according to Dunks and Threes. That figure translated to 14.4 wins for the Warriors, the league’s second-best overall mark behind Nikola Jokic.

These figures likely come as no surprise, Curry is one of the league’s most dominant offensive players and has completely revolutionized the Warriors’ style of play. The concerns for Golden State this upcoming season are twofold: ensuring Curry has a manageable load and that they compete during the limited minutes he rests.

In the 413 minutes Curry sat last season, the Warriors effective field-goal percentage dropped from 63 percent to 50.5 percent and as a result, their net rating plummeted from +6.9 to -3.2.

The directional trend isn’t surprising, but the severity of it is. The Warriors, chiefly Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, and Klay Thompson, when he’s available, will need to provide the necessary spark to afford Curry his usual rest at the beginning of the second and fourth quarters.

If the Warriors can play even with opponents during those stretches, they’ll have a better chance of avoiding the play-in tournament this time around.

Los Angeles Clippers: Net rating

Kawhi Leonard‘s absence poses a lot of problems for the Clippers, specifically that their odds of reaching the NBA Finals are essentially nill without him. However, the Clippers were still a top-10 team when he rested last season, with a net rating of plus-5.1, according to NBA Stats.

So, yes, the Clippers can win without Kawhi, but will they be able to sustain such a level of play over an 82-game season? Regularly, the numbers and our preconceptions disagree — and this well seems to be one of the time’s when our preconceptions are to be trusted.

If the Clippers can continue to play at a similar rate sans Leonard, they should finish in the top half of the Western Conference’s playoff bracket.

Los Angeles Lakers: Transition offense

In the 2019-20 season, easily the NBA’s strangest campaign, the Lakers were the league’s best transition offense and won their 16th title. Correlation is not causation, but those same Lakers became the league’s 23rd ranked offense with a meager 111 offensive efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass, and exited the playoffs in the first round a year later.

That number is largely a result of the injury troubles LeBron James and Anthony Davis faced after a quick turnaround between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. But if the Lakers, who are getting older and more injury-prone each passing month, are struggling offensively again to start the year, they may need to look to transition as fuel to sustain their offense.

For all the criticism their front office received for personal changes made in the offseason, one shared skill set among the majority of the Lakers’ acquisitions is that their teams were better in transition last season when they were on the court.

The Heat, Warriors, and Wizards were all better in the open court with Kendrick Nunn, Kent Bazemore, and Russell Westbrook on the floor, respectively. The Lakers were better in transition with Rajon Rondo on the court in 2019-20. Will the minutes afforded to aged veterans Carmelo Anthony, Deandre Jordan, and Trevor Ariza offset any improvement from the Lakers’ backcourt acquisitions?

Under Frank Vogel, the Lakers are a guaranteed top-five defense, especially so with a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If they can find a way to juice their offseason to a top-10 level, they should be the favorite in the West.

Phoenix Suns: Offensive efficiency

The Suns were the league’s most improved team last season with a surprise trip to the NBA Finals. Chris Paul‘s welcome addition, along with developments from Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton, solidified the Suns as a true contender this upcoming season.

The biggest change between the 2019-20 season and last year for these Suns came offensively by improving their overall efficiency as the league’s sixth-best offense. Only three rotational players — Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson, and most surprising, Devin Booker — shot below league-average from the field last season.

Six other Suns shot at a league-best rate, including Bridges and Ayton; both shot the ball at a 63 percent effective field-goal percentage rate.

While defensive improvement was also a critical component to the Suns’ success, if Phoenix can shoot the ball efficiently again they could well return to the Finals.

Sacramento Kings: Opponent second-chance opportunities

The Kings were the league’s worst defense last season, the main reason they were 10 games below .500.

That league-worst defense was inhibited by Sacramento allowing the third-most opponent second-chance opportunities — opponents rebounded 27.5 percent of their misses against the Kings.

Sacramento is in an interesting place as a franchise. They have two proven, talented, young guards in De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, and a conglomeration of interesting role players that could pop in the right situation.

The Kings’ explosive offense won’t be able to amend for their defensive struggles, particularly in limiting opponent second-chance opportunities, if they continue to allow opponents the same opportunities they’ve been afforded. The additions of Tristan Thompson and Davion Mitchell, a strong rebounder for his size last season with Baylor, should help in this regard.

If the Kings aren’t able to correct this trend early in the season, they’ll be returning to the lottery.