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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: What the Top 16 seed reveal taught us

By Mike Phillips

LAWRENCE, KANSAS - FEBRUARY 14: Christian Braun #2 of the Kansas Jayhawks looks to shoot against Avery Anderson III #0 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on February 14, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
LAWRENCE, KANSAS - FEBRUARY 14: Christian Braun #2 of the Kansas Jayhawks looks to shoot against Avery Anderson III #0 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on February 14, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /
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CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 21: R.J. Davis #4 of the North Carolina Tar Heels drives to the basket against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half of their game at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 21, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Tar Heels won 70-63. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 21: R.J. Davis #4 of the North Carolina Tar Heels drives to the basket against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half of their game at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 21, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Tar Heels won 70-63. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Last 4 Byes

Miami, Rutgers, Indiana, San Francisco

Another big win over Illinois last week pushes the Scarlet Knights into the bracket, which is absolutely remarkable considering they weren’t even on the bubble three weeks ago. Rutgers has also leapt ahead of Indiana in this process as the Hoosiers have squandered numerous chances to secure their safety, including a collapse late on Monday in a road game they had in the bag at Ohio State.

The lack of quality wins hurts a team like San Francisco, which doesn’t have much on its resume to speak of outside of splits with Saint Mary’s and BYU, but they do have an opportunity to make a statement with Gonzaga coming to town on Thursday. Miami’s resume is thinner than people think after getting swept by Virginia, putting the Hurricanes closer to the cut line than they should be.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Last 4 In

SMU, Florida, Memphis, Michigan

The Gators also put themselves on the right side of the bubble with their huge win over Auburn and the Selection Committee will likely weigh the absence of Colin Castleton, who played a giant role in the win over the Tigers, when considering their mid-season struggles. Memphis is back above the cut-line thanks to some strong work that includes a win at Houston but the fact they got swept by fellow American bubbler SMU is at least cause for concern

Speaking of SMU, their sweep of the Tigers and home win over Houston is great but the overall body of work that the Mustangs have put together leaves them in greater jeopardy of getting left out of the field than Memphis at this point. The last team in right now is Michigan, which has scored huge wins over Purdue and Iowa but has the suspension of head coach Juwan Howard to deal with as a major distraction down the stretch.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The First 4 Out

San Diego State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Belmont

San Diego State was the last team out of this week’s field because they have no bad losses but not enough big wins either, which is a problem when the committee has emphasized Quad 1 wins. Oklahoma slid out of this week’s field after losing two more games to fall to 14-13 overall, which is closing in on the territory of too many losses to get an at-large despite playing a brutal Big 12 schedule.

Belmont is a team that passes the eye test but doesn’t quite have the resume to back it up with the best wins on their resume coming against Chattanooga, Saint Louis on the road and Iona on a neutral floor, but a trip to near-lock Murray State this week offers a shot to push the Bruins into the field. The last team in this category is Oregon, which doesn’t demonstrate a consistent effort level that has led to a litany of brutal losses (swept by Arizona State, Cal and Colorado at home to name a few) which could force the committee to overlook the talent level that the Ducks have when it all comes together.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Next 4 Out

North Carolina, Kansas State, Dayton, BYU

North Carolina finally got on the board with a Quad 1 win against an average Virginia Tech team on the road, which is better than nothing but still leaves a lot to be desired when the Tar Heels got blown out in nearly all of their Quad 1 losses and found a way to lose at home to Pitt last week. Kansas State is in a similar boat as Oklahoma in that they are a team that is far better than its 14-12 record but is simply accumulating too much damage with fewer quality wins than the Sooners.

Dayton is making a push out of the A-10 and does have a neutral-court win over Kansas under its belt but an early-season three-game losing streak to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay add a trio of anchors the Flyers will need to overcome with a deep run in the conference tournament. The Cougars would be the fourth team out of the WCC but their big win over Oregon earlier this season has lost a lot of luster thanks to the Ducks’ slide down the Pac-12 standings while bad losses to Vanderbilt, Utah Valley and Pacific really sink BYU’s resume quite a bit.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big Ten: 9
  • Big East: 7
  • SEC: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • ACC: 4
  • Pac-12: 3
  • American: 3
  • Mountain West: 3
  • WCC: 3

Next. Top 25 college basketball teams of all time. dark

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