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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: What the Top 16 seed reveal taught us

By Mike Phillips

LAWRENCE, KANSAS - FEBRUARY 14: Christian Braun #2 of the Kansas Jayhawks looks to shoot against Avery Anderson III #0 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on February 14, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
LAWRENCE, KANSAS - FEBRUARY 14: Christian Braun #2 of the Kansas Jayhawks looks to shoot against Avery Anderson III #0 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on February 14, 2022 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /
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LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY – FEBRUARY 19: Kellan Grady #31 of the Kentucky Wildcats shoots the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Rupp Arena on February 19, 2022, in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY – FEBRUARY 19: Kellan Grady #31 of the Kentucky Wildcats shoots the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Rupp Arena on February 19, 2022, in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

This week’s Bracketology report comes after the NCAA’s Selection Committee released its Top 16 seeds on Saturday, adding some clarity to the process.

There may not be a more valuable exercise for bracketologists than the NCAA’s annual Top 16 seed reveal, which shares who the top teams in the field would be if the season ended in mid-February. This year’s edition not only laid out the Top 4 lines on the bracket but also shared some valuable insights into the thinking of the selection committee, which does lend a lot of value to those projecting the field.

One of the big takeaways from committee chair Tom Burnett is that Quadrant 1 wins matter more than just having shiny metrics like the NET. Burnett specifically cited Quad 1 wins as a reason why Kansas got the final No. 1 seed in the exercise as well as why Wisconsin and Providence ended up on the four-line despite shakier performances in the metrics.

That factor can be heavily extrapolated to the bubble watch portion of the program, which we’ll get to in just a minute. The first order of business is going over the Top 16 seeds in the field and examining why the committee did what they did here.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: The 4 No. 1 Seeds

Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas

The top three teams on this line are tight and Arizona probably leapfrogged Auburn after the Tigers lost at Florida over the weekend. Burnett indicated that the margins separating these teams are razor-thin so the next three weeks could shape who the top overall seed is on Selection Sunday.

The surprise of the seed reveal was that Kansas ended up on the top line ahead of Kentucky, which was surging in SEC play and had won by 18 over the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse. The Quadrant 1 wins were the differentiator and that may continue to be the case if the Wildcats trip up a few more times in conference play.

Note: All teams currently leading their conference were placed into the projected field as automatic qualifiers.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: The 4 No. 2 Seeds

Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke

The Bears were also placed ahead of Kentucky on the S-curve on the strength of Baylor’s nine Quadrant 1 wins, a figure they can add to this week with a visit from Kansas on Saturday. Kentucky likely slipped on the curve a bit after losing by 14 at Tennessee but a huge win over Alabama minus two starters likely stopped the bleeding.

The second half of this grouping features two teams who are talented enough to win the national championship but have underachieved to a degree in Purdue and Duke. The Boilermakers’ defense can be a big issue while the Blue Devils did impressive work last week by edging out a game Wake Forest team at home before blowing out Florida State on Saturday.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: The 4 No. 3 Seeds

Villanova, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois

The race to get from the three-line to the two-line may be more competitive than the battle to knock Kansas off the top line. All four of these teams have legitimate cases to be No. 2 seeds, with Villanova coming the closest to cracking that grouping after an impressive win at Providence last week.

The scariest team on the three-line right now is Texas Tech, which can ride one of the nation’s best defenses to a national championship. The Red Raiders did suffer a loss against Big 12 Oklahoma a few weeks ago but made an impressive statement last week by sweeping Baylor and Texas (with the latter on the road).

NCAA Tournament Bracketology: The 4 No. 4 Seeds

Wisconsin, Providence, UCLA, Texas

We’ve already mentioned the reason why Providence and Wisconsin are on this line at the top so let’s look at the other two teams the Selection Committee had in this range. UCLA was the No. 2 team in the country pre-season but has had some strange losses in conference play, including a triple-overtime loss at Arizona State, but the nucleus of the team that went from the First Four to the Final Four a year ago is still intact.

Texas was the surprise on this line as they topped Houston and Alabama (among others) to round out the S-Curve. Chris Beard’s team has had issues with consistency against elite competition but the Longhorns do have the talent to make serious noise in March.

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