Nylon Calculus: Lottery teams with postseason potential
Eastern Conference, Washington Wizards
Washington has had a rollercoaster season under new head coach Wes Unseld Jr., but their early-season success suggests they could compete with the conference’s best teams at their peak.
In mid-November, the Wizards were 10-3 and one of the league’s best storylines after ditching Russell Westbrook and revamping their roster around Bradley Beal. They were also a top-tier defensive group, which was highlighted in our early season trends column. (Note: I was horribly wrong about the sustainability of Washington’s defensive success.)
Since the Wizards are a ghastly 19-35 and rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Worse, Beal is sidelined for the remainder of the season after opting for surgery on a sprained wrist. Without their star and lead offensive creator, how can one feel sanguine about the Wizards’ chances of competing in the postseason?
Offensively, Washington has rounded into form since the All-Star break. The Wizards have averaged 117 points per 100 possessions over the eight-game stretch. Expand the sample to include an additional five games since Beal was sidelined and their offensive efficiency still remains at a superb 116 points per 100 possessions.
This is not to say that the Wizards’ offense is better without Beal, but the addition of Kristaps Porzingis has partially filled that void. In Porzingis’ debut, he posted one of the most efficient games of his career, 25 points on 7-for-12 shooting from the floor including 3-for-4 on 3-pointers.
In Beal’s absence, the Wizards have found stability in their willingness to share the offensive load. Kyle Kuzma has assumed the role of the primary on-ball creator, flanked by the emerging Rui Hachimura–Corey Kispert duo on the wing.
With Washington, Kuzma has rounded out his offensive profile after primarily functioning as a spot-up shooter on a talent-laden Laker roster the prior two seasons. In a higher usage role, he’s upped his efficiency at the rim and from the midrange while keeping his outside shot at a league-average efficiency. He’s figuring out how to operate from this role game-to-game, and the development he’s shown in a few months bodes well for his trajectory this season and beyond.
Kispert was touted for his outside shooting efficiency coming into his rookie campaign and he hasn’t disappointed (given realistic expectations for a first-year playing in an expanded offensive role). On the season he’s shooting league average from outside, but since the new year, he’s shot 58 percent on corner 3-point attempts, per Cleaning the Glass. Nearly as impressive, he’s shooting above 71 percent at the rim and 49 percent from the midrange — excellent efficiency for a player still learning the speed of the NBA game.
Due to a variety of afflictions and absences, Hachimura had a delayed start to the 2021-22 season after representing his home country at the Tokyo Olympics last summer. He was finally able to join the team on the floor at the end of December. Through 26 games this season he’s shot 50 percent from beyond the arc and 74 percent at the rim, figures that few players at the forward position have compiled in any sample of similar length this season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Thomas Bryant have had substandard starts to the season, but they’ve both proven they can contribute on offense. Young Deni Avdija is still learning the game, but he offers a valuable spark dually as a scorer and creator.
Washington is currently 29-38, four games behind Charlotte for the final play-in tournament berth and eight games behind Toronto in the loss column for the seventh seed. Given how tight the standings currently sit, a hot streak could land the Wizards in a position to compete not only for play-in tournament qualification but a first-round playoff series. With Beal sidelined, it’s easy to count out the Wizards from the field. But their recent offensive performance and the addition of Porzingis should foster optimism.