Predicting The Final Four for the 2022 NCAA Women’s Tournament

As the NCAA Women’s Tournament prepares to kick off, we’re already looking ahead and making predictions for The Final Four.

The 2022 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament is here. For the first time, the field has expanded to 68 teams. Of those 68, just four will emerge standing in April for the Final Four at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

Which teams will make it? Let’s look at my predictions for the Final Four.

For more on the tournament, see my full breakdown of the bracket here.

NCAA Women’s Tournament Greensboro Region: South Carolina

This is the easiest pick. As I wrote in my longer preview of the tournament, South Carolina has the easiest path to the Final Four. The two-seed in the region, Iowa, just doesn’t have a team that’s built to stop Aliyah Boston.

The Gamecocks went 29-2 this season and ranked second in net points per game at 19.6. They were also second in Division I in net rating. They’ve got Boston on the inside plus one of the nation’s best guards in Destanni Henderson. The team can score at the bucket. It can score outside. Defensively, it just suffocates teams, as its opponents shot just 33% from the floor this season.

NCAA Women’s Tournament Wichita Region: Baylor

Louisville is the No. 1 seed in this region, but I like No. 2 seed Baylor to make the Final Four. Part of that is because the Bears have NaLyssa Smith, one of the best players in the country. Another part of that is because Baylor has some underrated guard play. The team ranked 35th in the country in three-point field goal percentage and overall was 10th in points per play per Her Hoop Stats.

The big issue for Baylor is depth. This team only really goes seven deep. If Queen Egbo gets into foul trouble, things get really thin upfront. Still, we’ve seen Baylor dismantle good teams like Iowa State this season and they beat tournament team Kansas State by 45 in February.

NCAA Women’s Tournament Spokane Region: Stanford

I think Stanford has the toughest path to the Final Four of any No. 1 seed, but I also think Stanford is clearly one of the two best teams in this tournament, so there’s no way I’m picking against them. The biggest concern is a possible Elite Eight meeting with a Texas team that already beat the Cardinal once, but I have concerns about Texas having enough offense to make it that far.

Stanford had the seventh-best net rating in the country. The team didn’t lose a single conference game and all three of the non-conference losses were against tournament teams, including a four-point loss to No. 1 South Carolina in December, the last loss for the team.

NCAA Women’s Tournament Bridgeport Region: UConn

This is the most interesting region. UConn’s outlook depends on Paige Bueckers being healthy. She appeared in just six conference games because of a knee injury, averaging 17.4 minutes per game, with 8.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. But back in non-conference play when Bueckers was healthy, she was doing things like scoring 34 points against Arkansas and routinely coming close to triple-doubles. She can be the best guard in the country if she’s at 100%.

And that’s what we’re counting on: Bueckers being close enough to her best to get this UConn team to the Final Four. She has a strong supporting cast with players like Christyn Williams, Evina Westbrook, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Azzi Fudd. This team won the Big East title game by 30 with Bueckers playing just eight minutes.