PGA Championship dark horse picks: 5 sleepers who could win at Southern HIlls

2. Russell Henley (+10000)

Over the last 40 rounds, here are the six best players in the field at Southern Hills in Strokes Gained: Approach: Cameron Smith, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley.

Henley is the outlier there in terms of Official World Golf Rankings and things of the like. Yet, his play and finishes this year have backed up the statistics. Yes, he’s faded a bit lately in terms of his placing but, overall, he’s just been consistently on leaderboards this year. With that approach play and a strong around the green game, Henley is someone you shouldn’t sleep too hard on at the second major championship of the season.

1. Chris Kirk (+30000)

Looking at the numbers, I truly don’t understand why the odds are so long for Chris Kirk, but I’m not going to allow that to force me to shy away from it.

Kirk is seventh in this field over the last 40 rounds in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green as he remains a top-tier ball-striker who also plays well around the greens. The big bugaboo for him remains the putter, where he’s losing strokes per round over that same span. However, this isn’t going to be a putting contest and the ball-striking and saving yourself around the green is going to be paramount.

While a win might be outlandish for Kirk, seeing him with even +600 odds just to finish in the Top 20 feels like amazing value. He’s played too well overall this year for his number to be this high and that’s certainly catching my eye this week.

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