US Open picks: Expert picks, best bets for The Country Club

US Open best bets for this week

Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 (+150)

Justin Thomas’ big weakness after winning THE PLAYERS in 2021 was that the putter went by the wayside. However, earlier this season at the RBC Heritage, he underwent a putter change and has gained strokes in all but two rounds since then. The worry is certainly that his driver can get a little squirrely, but that’s why I’m not betting him to win. The rest of his game is in such great form and he appears incredibly motivated by the LIV Golf break-off that I think a Top 10 at +150 is as close to a lock as you’re going to find. JT is in big-game hunting mode, and the US Open is definitely a big game.

Tommy Fleetwood to finish Top 20 (+225)

Per golf stats czar Justin Ray, only six players have finished inside the Top 15 at The Masters and PGA Championship. Tommy Fleetwood is, to the shock of some, among that group.

Fleetwood has started to find his game in a big way over the past couple of months and is among those gaining strokes across the board. Most importantly, he’s an accurate and smart player off the tee and has recaptured his strong approach play as of late. Combine that with a polished short game and I love getting +225 odds on a bet that all the signs point to being a good hit.

Patrick Cantlay to Miss the Cut

We don’t have odds for this but, whenever we do, I’m hammering them. Based solely on the numbers, Cantlay should be a great fit for The Country Club with a complete game. But not only has his form fallen off a bit from earlier in the year, he’s been shockingly bad in majors, most notably missing the cut at Southern Hills, another place that should’ve fit him. Maybe missing the cut is too bold, but I’m fading Cantlay when I can and this is how I’m doing it at what should be great odds.

Wild Card Bet for the US Open: Adri Arnaus to finish Top 20 (+650)

If you’re looking for a +650 sprinkle for a Top 20 finish, look no further than Adri Arnaus. The 27-year-old Spainard has started to find himself on the DP World Tour, losing in two playoffs and finally getting his first win in a third just since 2021. He was also in the mix before falling down to T30 at the PGA Championship. He’s gaining more than 2.23 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 measured rounds and the putter is the concern. At these odds, though, he’s worth a sprinkle as a guy who is rounding into the best form of his career.