Heisman Watch 2022: Caleb Williams, the floor is yours

The USC quarterback steps into the limelight with a string of games that can boost his Heisman Trophy candidacy, beginning Saturday vs. rival UCLA.

USC finds itself in an unsavory position in the College Football Playoff rankings, nestled between LSU and Alabama at No. 7 — two teams having already suffered two losses, a veritable death knell in these proceedings — at seventh. Per ESPN’s FPI, only North Carolina at 0.1 percent has a lower chance of making the playoff than the Trojans at 7.2.

Their quarterback is in the same place when it comes to the Heisman Trophy. Caleb Williams is sixth in the latest odds (+1100), where he finds himself behind another Pac-12 passer in Oregon’s Bo Nix (+800), whose case is wrought with historical pitfalls.

But for both those award and playoff dreams, the spotlight and the opportunity are suddenly brighter than they have been in weeks.

The Trojans head to No. 16 UCLA on Saturday, followed by No. 18 Notre Dame. Should USC beat the Bruins in the Battle of Los Angeles, it’ll punch a ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game, where it’s likely to see No. 10 Utah or No. 12 Oregon.

That puts Williams in a position to have three straight Top-25 games to close out the regular season, the only such stretch for any of the contenders. Should the Trojans win them all, it makes a compelling case for the one-loss conference champs to reach the playoff for the first time.

But will it be enough?

Alabama’s Bryce Young (+250), the defending winner, and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud (+400) were the only players who opened the season with better odds than Williams (+800). He jumped up to +300, second to Stroud, after Week 4, but since an Oct. 14 loss to Utah, has been as high as +1400, and after trending in the right direction last week at +800 again, is up to +1100 entering Week 12 (despite totaling five touchdowns in a rout of Colorado).

Tied for third in FBS with 31 touchdown passes and eighth in efficiency rating (166.41) in totaling 3,010 yards, Williams has the numbers, but he’s lacked the moments. Frankly, aside from Hendon Hooker’s heroics as Tennessee took down Alabama, it’s been race light on Heisman Moments.

Williams has been there, sticking around with a resume that hasn’t included a single win over a ranked team. Now he has a chance to prove his case with an attention-grabbing closing stretch.

Before we dive into this week’s stock watch, here’s how this voter’s virtual ballot looks after 11 weeks.

1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
3. Blake Corum, Michigan

Heisman stock watch: Which candidates are heating up, which are falling off?

BUY: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State/Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

The top two contenders bounced back in big ways after their Week 11 setbacks and are in line for some stat-building performances this weekend … but let’s talk about those stats for a moment.

Stroud has thrown for 2,750 yards and 34 touchdowns, and with up to three games to play before votes are due if Ohio State plays for a Big Ten title, he’s on pace for 3,575 yards and 44 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Hooker, has thrown for 2,888 yards and 24 scores and ran for 405 yards and five touchdowns and has just two games remaining, with Tennessee resigned to watching Georgia represent the East in the SEC Championship Game. He’s trending toward 3,546 total yards and 30 touchdowns, including 3,465 yards and 29 scores passing.

Should either wind up with the trophy, it would be the fewest passing yards for a winner since Lamar Jackson (who also ran for 1,538 yards) in 2016 and the fewest total yards since Troy Smith (2,740 yards) in 2006. Stroud would have the lowest touchdown count since Johnny Manziel’s 43 in 2012; Hooker the fewest scores since Eric Crouch’s 19 in 2001.

That’s not to say they aren’t both Heisman-worthy. Both have stood out since the opening snap and seem destined to finish 1-2 in the voting. As far as their stats, they aren’t likely to make up for those gaps in pace against past winners this week, but both Hooker and Stroud should be in for big days on the road.

Stroud and the No 2 Buckeyes are at Maryland, which has struggled against winning teams, allowing 278.3 passing yards per game (77 more than vs. losing squads) and a defense he torched for 406 yards a year ago. Hooker and Co. head to South Carolina, which is 28th vs. the pass, allowing 194 yards per game, but has played one Power 5 offense that’s higher than 56th through the air — Georgia at ninth — and gave up 339 yards.

SELL: Bo Nix, Oregon

There’s no way around it: All the momentum Bo Nix had built up was squashed in the loss to Washington at Autzen Stadium.

He was on a roll over eight straight wins and Nix was seemingly in line for a trip to the ceremony, despite the shellacking vs. Georgia in the season opener. But now the Ducks are all but out of the playoff races with two Ls on their resume, and while there’s still a chance at the Pac-12 crown, that isn’t going to keep his Heisman hopes afloat.

In the playoff era, only one winner has come from outside the final four teams, and in the past four years, only 26 percent of the finalists (four of 15) have come from outside playoff teams. With each of the top five teams having a contender, it doesn’t bode well for Nix.

BUY: Drake Maye, North Carolina

The folks in the desert are squarely on the Drake Maye hype train.

Off the board to open the season, the redshirt freshman has jumped to +500 — which puts him behind only Stroud and Hooker — after outdueling Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman to push the now 10th-ranked Tar Heels to 9-1 and the ACC Coastal Division title.

Maye’s 34 touchdowns are tied with Stroud for the FBS lead and he’s third in yards (3,412), second in yards per game (341.2) and third in efficiency rating (178.9). He also has a chance to boost his resumé late with back-to-back Top-25 games vs. No. 24 NC State and No. 9 Clemson.

At this stage, it feels a very real possibility that Maye will produce the Tar Heels’ first top-10 in the voting since Julius Peppers was 10th in 2001, and their best finish since Charlie Justice’s runner-up in 1949.

SELL: Max Duggan, TCU

The wins keep coming for TCU, which is 10-0 and remains fourth in the latest playoff rankings, but Max Duggan’s numbers are going backward.

He threw for a season-low 124 yards and one touchdown in last Saturday’s victory at Texas and has had less than 200 yards in each of the past two games. Halfway through November, he’s 82nd in the month in passing yards (319).

Despite the lack of big stats of late, Duggan remains sixth in efficiency rating (172.56) and has a matchup that figures to be a respite, as the Horned Frogs face Baylor, which has given up 405 or more yards in back-to-back games.

But he’s running out of time with 2,531 yards to this point. Duggan remains in the mix, but Bryce Young is the only quarterback in the top eight in the odds that has thrown for fewer yards (2,443), and Young is basically a non-factor at this point.

BUY: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia

There’s history in the making for Stetson Bennett IV, who has thrown for 2,895 yards on the season, putting him 999 away from Aaron Murray for the single-season Georgia record.

Getting there seems almost a given with the potential of the Bulldogs playing as many as five more games should they return to the national title game, but the Heisman votes are due the Monday after the SEC championship. So, in terms of his candidacy, will Bennett set the mark by the ballot deadline?

It figures to get interesting. He’s averaging 289 yards per game, which would put Bennett in shouting distance, but Georgia faces Kentucky this week, which is 17th against the pass (182 yards per game) — and has allowed 200 yards through the air three times all season — followed by Georgia Tech (57th, yielding 220.4 per) and No. 6 LSU (41st at 207.8 a game) in Atlanta.

That mark won’t make or break Murray’s standing in the race, and frankly, he’s a ways behind the leaders, but Georgia’s dominance is to his benefit. He’ll show up on ballots and should challenge Eric Zeier (1994) and Ray Goff (1976), who were both seventh, for the best finish ever for a Bulldogs quarterback.

SELL: Chase Brown, Illinois

Helped off the field in the final minute of last weekend’s loss to Purdue, it’s unclear if Chase Brown will suit up Saturday when Illinois faces No. 3 Michigan.

But it’s not just his status that earns Brown “Sell” status.

His streak of 10 straight 100-yard games was snapped at the hands of the Boilermakers, and should he take the field in Ann Arbor, he’ll be taking on the nation’s top-ranked rush defense, which is giving up just 72.7 yards per game.

That’s not exactly a positive combination for a player who desperately needs to outduel Corum to resuscitate his already slim chances.

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