MLB Insider: Predicting where the top 2023 free agents will sign

Shohei Ohtani (17) after batting against the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Shohei Ohtani (17) after batting against the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports /
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Bold San Diego Padres predictions
Josh Hader (71) looks on after the last out of the top of the ninth inning was recorded against the Washington Nationals at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

Josh Hader

Prediction: San Diego Padres

For years, Padres general manager A.J. Preller coveted Hader. He engaged the Brewers in trade talks to acquire the star left-hander and came up empty each time. Then in 2022, he acquired Hader in a blockbuster trade that sent shockwaves across the baseball industry.

After watching Hader dominate last postseason, it’s hard to imagine Preller letting him leave after the 2023 season.

Hader, 28, is likely to command a contract in excess of New York Mets reliever Edwin Diaz’s five-year, $102 million contract. For a Padres team that has signed three players to contracts worth at least $280 million, and with Juan Soto still needing an extension, such a contract for Hader would seem difficult.

But Machado took less in the first few seasons of his $350 million extension for situations just like this. It would behoove the Padres to extend Hader before he reaches free agency. Even if it did get to that point, Preller figures to have enough payroll room available to keep the superstar reliever in San Diego long-term.