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MLB Insider: Predicting where the top 2023 free agents will sign

By Robert Murray

Shohei Ohtani (17) after batting against the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Shohei Ohtani (17) after batting against the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aaron Nola, Phillies, World Series
Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after giving up a home run to Kyle Tucker #30 of the Houston Astros in the third inning in Game One of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 28, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

Aaron Nola

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

There’s a very real chance that Nola doesn’t even make it to free agency. The star right-hander and the Philadelphia Phillies are talking about a contract extension, sources say, though an agreement is not believed to be close.

But there’s certainly motivation for both sides to complete a deal before Opening Day. For the Phillies, it would keep their homegrown star in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future, and give lead executive Dave Dombrowski the long-term certainty in the rotation that he has long coveted. For Nola, it would give him certainty headed into the 2023 season, and the $100+ million contract that he earned after a breakout 2022 season.

In 32 games last season, Nola posted a 3.25 ERA and a 235/29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was among the best right-handed pitchers in baseball and he’s pitched at least 180 innings in each of the last four full regular seasons. His durability makes him that much more desirable to teams if he becomes a free agent, and gives Dombrowski and the Phillies’ front office all the more reason to do a long-term deal now.

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