Fansided

Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Josh Yourish

Mar 10, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Makhi Mitchell (15) and guard Anthony Black (0) react after a loss against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 10, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Makhi Mitchell (15) and guard Anthony Black (0) react after a loss against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

This game has the potential to be really great, and that’s because the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Illinois Fighting Illini both had and still have the potential to be great. We just haven’t seen it from these two inconsistent teams nearly enough and that’s why they’re the 8-9 matchup in the West region.

Arkansas is loaded with five-star freshmen and Illinois has big time, Big 12 transfers, but both underachieved. That can all be wiped away with a few wins in March.

Let’s get into the odds for Illinois and Arkansas on Thursday at 4:30 ET in Iowa.

Illinois vs. Arkansas odds, spread and total

Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction and pick

Eric Musselman’s plan to bring in one of the best one-and-done recruiting classes in the country was derailed a bit, but it wasn’t Musselman’s fault. The injury bug bit the Razorbacks and their most highly touted freshman, Nick Smith Jr. missed a lot of the season with a knee injury. He’s back now and the backcourt of Anthony Black, fellow five-star freshman, Smith Jr. and Davonte Davis, their Junior running mate, is scary.

That’s before you even mention their leading scorer, Ricky Council IV who is now coming off the bench. They are a hyper athletic team that plays with pace and can overwhelm almost anybody with their talent. The flip side of that coin is they’re trusting a lot of freshmen in March.

Illinois on the other hand has Terrence Shannon Jr. a senior in his first year at Illinois after his time at Texas Tech and Matthew Mayer a super senior who transferred in from Baylor and won a national championship with the Bears in 2021. They have all the experience, but they’re one of the worst shooting teams in the country, 31% from three which is 334th, and they take the second most of any Big 10 team.

I think Arkansas has enough to get it done. Eric Musselman’s style always plays in March and they have just enough experience to go with their insane talent level. Surprisingly, they’re 24th in defensive efficiency and 124th on offense, so if they can score enough with Smith Jr. they’ll be fine and could even give Kansas a scare in the next round.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change