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Utah State vs. Missouri prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Mar 10, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers guard DeAndre Gholston (4) dribbles against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 10, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers guard DeAndre Gholston (4) dribbles against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports /
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Utah State secured an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament after a Mountain West Conference tournament run to the title game, setting up a first round matchup against SEC foe Missouri.

Dennis Gates’ has thrived in his first season with Missouri, loading his roster up with mid-major transfers that held up nicely in SEC play and grabbing a No. 7 seed in the Big Dance. Both teams enter with elite offenses and suspect defenses, so how should we bet this exciting first round meeting?

Here’s the odds:

Utah State vs. Missouri odds, spread and total

Utah State vs. Missouri prediction and pick

Missouri’s defense is unique with its ball pressure, top five in the country in turnover percentage, and morphing defensive schemes, but if Utah State can handle the initial defensive looks, it should feast against Missouri’s defense that allows the 16th highest 3-point rate in the country. The Aggies are a devastating perimeter team, 11th in 3-point percentage, hitting on more than 38% of their shots from deep.

However, Missouri’s offense can have its way as well against a slow footed Utah State team. The Tigers are 17th in effective field goal percentage and also a more than capable 3-point shooting team at over 36%. The team wants to play fast and any Utah State miss is going to lead to runouts for the Tigers offense.

Utah State doesn’t generate any turnovers, outside the top 300, so I expect the Missouri offense to play freely and have its way inside and out against the Aggies defense.

It’s worth noting that the Mountain West has struggled in the NCAA Tournament of late, failing to cover in its last nine tourney games. While that’s not predictive of anything in this iteration of the NCAA Tournament, it may show that quality MWC may struggle when they step up in class to say a high major team from a conference like the SEC.

I lean towards Missouri as an underdog, but I’ll share the over as my favorite bet as both offense should have little issue putting points on the board.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.