Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Western Conference

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks finish outside the top 10 on defense

Last season, the Mavericks were the eighth-best defense in the NBA, a sea change from their offense-focused mentality over the prior couple of seasons. While I thought it was clear they wouldn’t be elite on that side of the ball again, I didn’t expect the total regression that occurred.

Dallas finished as the league’s 23rd-best defense this season, allowing opponents to score 1.17 points per possession on 55 percent shooting. More specifically, the Mavericks lost the advantage they captured a season ago by limiting opponent free-throw attempts and forcing additional turnovers.

Their roster is fundamentally different from that of a season ago and Maxi Kleber’s absence this season is certainly captured in these numbers. But the Mavericks also don’t have the same fervor that they displayed in their Conference Finals run last May. Where this team will go, particularly with the impending Kyrie Irving free agency decision, remains to be seen.

Grade: A-

Prediction: Houston Rockets are not the league’s worst defense

While not the bravest prediction of the bunch, it was premised on two beliefs. First, there were other teams interested in overtly tanking for the opportunity to draft a franchise-altering player. And second, the Rockets have an interest in instilling a baseline culture of accountability in its young roster.

Well, the first belief was the difference maker and the second doesn’t appear to have been remotely correct. Both the numbers and play on-court this season suggest there’s no tangible focus on laying the groundwork for future competitive basketball.

Houston finishes as the second-worst defense, barely above the San Antonio Spurs, both of which afforded over 1.2 points per possession to opponents this season. And given that there were few bright spots of trajectory throughout the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets’ defense equally inept next season.

Grade: B+

Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies finish in the bottom third of the league in defensive shot profile

At the time I made this prediction, Memphis’ shot profile pointed to a flaw in either their game plan or execution on the defensive end. Through 25 games, the Grizzlies were affording opponents one of the highest rates of “efficient” shot attempts, those that come at the rim and from beyond the arc.

And, as predicted, that trend continued for the full 82-game schedule. The Grizzlies finished with the 9th-worst location shot profile, according to Cleaning the Glass, allowing opponents to take 72 percent of their combined attempts at the rim and from 3-point range.

To be clear, this is not an indictment on the Grizzlies’ defense. They were the league’s second-best defense and ranked in the top 10 for the entire season. But come playoff time, even the slightest weaknesses can be exploited by talented opponents.

Memphis opponents shot the lowest rate at the rim this season, a testament to Defensive Player of the Year favorite Jaren Jackson Jr. But opponents also missed an above-average number of attempts from both the mid-range and 3-point line, indicators that the Grizzlies may have had some outsized shooting luck influence their defensive standing.

I believe that Memphis has the defensive identity to play top-notch postseason basketball, featuring maybe the best interior rim defender in Jackson Jr. and one of the better perimeter defensive stalwarts in Dillon Brooks. But, there are conference opponents who would relish the opportunity to take a high diet of shots from beyond the arc in a possible playoff matchup.

Grade: A

Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans finish with the league’s second-best offense

A big miss on a team that didn’t take the leap that most expected they would, after a strong showing in the first round of the 2022 Playoffs and a hot start to the season.

The Pelicans regressed to the league’s 18th-best offense, scoring 1.15 points per possession on 55 percent shooting. They were as injury-plagued a team as any this season — Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson played a combined 73 games. As a result, they’ll face the Lakers in the play-in tournament on Tuesday.

After two months of play, New Orleans was the league’s sixth-best offense and top-10 in securing offensive rebounds, getting to the free-throw line, and shooting efficiently from the field. After 82 games, they only maintained their above-average early-season free-throw rate. It would appear that the way to suffocate the Pelicans’ offense is to limit their attempts at the free-throw line.

Over the past month, New Orleans has the second-highest net rating as a result of their stellar defense. With Williamson officially sidelined for the start of the postseason and the Pelicans starting to play their best basketball of the season, it is defense, not offense, that will likely define the Pelicans’ season.

Grade: F

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs finishes with the worst record in the league

The Pistons own the worst record, with a 2-18 record since the start of March. The Spurs are not far behind, tied for second-worst with their division rival in Houston. All three have made extensive efforts to lose as many games as possible since the All-Star break, and with the lottery probability changes, San Antonio didn’t have further incentive to get to the absolute bottom of the league standings.

They may not have been the league’s worst team, but their play was arguably the most consistently poor throughout the season.

Grade: C+

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