Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Eastern Conference

Prediction: Atlanta Hawks improve their defense by at least 10 spots and are 18th or better league-wide

Another down year for an Atlanta Hawks team that can’t seem to figure out its defensive identity. The coaching turmoil and ultimate change make any Hawks prediction fraught, but this one stings given that there was little evidence to suggest a massive improvement would come.

Dejounte Murray’s addition was the catalyst for making a bold pick for an otherwise uninspiring defensive roster, but Atlanta is slightly worse defensively with him on the floor. Their disappointing defense isn’t indicative of Murray’s impact — he’s one of the better backcourt defenders in the NBA — but rather a certification of Trae Young’s infectious defensive ineptitude. Even pairing Young with a guard like Murray can’t fully provide cover for his limitations.

Atlanta was the ninth-worst defense in the NBA, due to an above-average allowance of opponent second-chance opportunities. The most encouraging aspect of their defensive campaign this season was limiting their opponents’ free-throw rate to the league’s 13th-best mark, per Cleaning the Glass.

Ostensibly, there’s reason to believe the Hawks could make the leap I projected next season under Quin Snyder’s tutelage. However, after what transpired this season, I would bet against it.

Grade: C

Prediction: Charlotte Hornets are the 10th-best offense or worse and the 20th-best defense or worse and miss the play-in tournament

Finally, a prediction that was on point.

However, the degree to which it was correct is nothing but unexpected. The Hornets have offensive juice — LaMelo Ball and the constantly-injured Gordon Hayward are their stalwarts, but Jalen McDaniels (now with the 76ers) and Mason Plumlee (now with the Clippers) provided necessary value on that end this season. Yet, they still finished as the worst offensive team in the league.

The main reason for the offensive crisis that transpired was the inefficient play of other high-usage players; namely Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, and PJ Washington.

We should applaud Steve Clifford for getting this group to the 20th-best defensive team. He consistently generates tremendous team defense from meager rosters.

Grade: A

Prediction: Miami Heat are the fourth-best team in the conference or better and are a top-10 team on both sides of the ball.

In terms of the numbers, Miami has underachieved more than any team compared to Las Vegas’ preseason odds. They are not a top-four team in their conference, they’ll be gearing up for the play-in tournament this week.

While the Heat has always been a “defense first” team under Erik Spoelstra, this is likely their most disappointing offensive performance during the coach’s tenure. The Heat scored 1.13 points per possession, slightly better than the bottom-feeder quintet of Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Orlando, and San Antonio.

Miami wasn’t a strong shot-making team, aside from getting to the line at one of the league’s best rates (a defining characteristic of Jimmy Butler-led teams). According to the numbers, they simply weren’t taking the most-efficient attempts from the field. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat had the fourth-worst location shot profile, characterized by few attempts coming at the rim and an outsize affection for mid-range jumpers.

The Heat have interior shot makers, Butler being the best among them. Their other main offensive creator inside, Bam Adebayo, saw his offensive efficiency dip to a level not seen since his rookie season. Miami didn’t have a stable rotation with reliable shot-making for most of the season, which points to how feeble this Heat team is compared to their other campaigns in the Spoelstra era.

Grade: C-

Prediction: Orlando Magic are in the top 20 offensively and the bottom 10 defensively in the league

Misses on both sides of this prediction require that we take a deeper look at Orlando as a team since they finally appear to be on a trajectory toward semi-competitive basketball.

Orlando was the 26th-best offense and 12th-best defense this season, per Cleaning the Glass, scoring 1.12 points per possession and affording opponents 1.14 per possession. They were one of the league’s worst shooting teams and also turned the ball over at one of the highest rates while forcing a high number of opponent turnovers.

Impressively for a young team, they leveled the turnover battle, and stole points on the glass and from the free-throw line; signs that are usually characteristic of competitive and veteran teams.

Their offense slid due to their shot rate. Orlando had one of the worst jump-shooting efficiencies of any team this season, making 41 percent and 35 percent of their midrange and outside attempts, respectively. It doesn’t help that they took an above-average number of attempts from the long midrange, the least efficient location on the court.

On defense, the Magic may have also been the beneficiaries of some luck, which may have been intentional on the part of the Basketball Gods given all that the franchise has had to endure over the prior decade. Orlando opponents shot a full percentage point below league average on 3-point attempts and a pathetic 34 percent on non-corner attempts. Given that they allowed opponents to take the fourth-most attempts from outside this season, we might expect some regression in their defense next season.

But, let’s give credit to this Magic team for making small yet meaningful improvements. Looking back, it may be a turning point for a young team on the rise, even if I didn’t predict it.

Grade: F

Prediction: Washington Wizards finish as a top-15 offense league-wide

The Wizards barely missed the cutoff, scoring 0.004 points per possession below the rate needed to be among the upper half of NBA offenses this season.

While this wasn’t the most provocative prediction in the list, there was a tinge of mystery surrounding this team and the appropriate expectations for them coming into the season. Bradley Beal had signed an extension to keep him in a Wizards uniform, but he’d been dealing with a wrist injury that required surgery last year.

Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had both made strides last season, but were they a sufficient one-two punch to carry the load if Beal were to miss extended time?

The Wizards weren’t a stellar offensive team overall this season, but they shot the ball at a rate that made up for their other inefficiencies on that end of the floor. Even their profile, characterized by the third-highest midrange diet, suggested they would falter. But they made an elite number of shots inside the arc this season, including the best rate at the rim and 43 percent of their long mid-range attempts. Sinking 40 percent on their corner 3-point attempts, thanks to high-efficiency marks from Corey Kispert and Kuzma, helped round out their impressive efficiency.

Were the Wizards to develop a defensive identity to compliment their shot-making, they’d be on the path toward competitive basketball.

Grade: B+

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