Predicting when the Rays win streak will come to an end

The Tampa Bay Rays have begun the 2023 season by winning a remarkable 13 games in a row, tying a record for the modern era. When will this streak end?

The Tampa Bay Rays have won a ridiculous 13 games in a row to begin the 2023 season. It’s the longest winning streak in franchise history and is tied for the longest streak in the modern era. The 1987 Brewers and the 1982 Braves are the only teams that can say they’ve done the same.

Tampa Bay has played what might be the easiest schedule to ever begin a season with a series against the Tigers, Athletics, Nationals, and Red Sox with three of the sets coming at home, but you still have to win the games you play.

As fun as it would be for Tampa Bay to go 162-0, we all know that’ll never happen. What we can do is guess how long this streak will actually go.

The Rays will win one more game before their streak ends on Saturday in Toronto

The Rays had an easy schedule for their first 13 games of the season but now head north of the border to face the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays sit at 8-5 after taking two of three from the Tigers at home. They’ve won three of the first four series they’ve played in this season.

Often when predicting who’s going to win a baseball game, you look at the starting pitching matchup. It’s very hard to predict, but often times the team with the better starting pitcher will win said game.

Tonight, the better pitcher is easy to claim. Drew Rasmussen has not allowed an earned run in his first 13 innings of the season for Tampa Bay. He’s allowed just three hits and has struck out 15 batters. This is following the 2.84 ERA season he had in 2022. Rasmussen is legit, and the Jays will have trouble scoring tonight.

Opposing Rasmussen is Jose Berrios. Once upon a time, Berrios was great, but he had a 5.23 ERA last season in 32 starts, and he’s allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in just 9.2 innings pitched in his first two starts. The Jays are the home team, but Tampa Bay has a big advantage on the mound. Give me the Rays.

Tomorrow is when I think the streak dies. Yusei Kikuchi is not good, but he’s always pitched well against the Rays. He has a 1.88 ERA in five appearances (four starts) against Tampa Bay which includes a start in which he allowed one run in six innings at Rogers Centre. I know this Rays lineup is better, but I do think it means something.

The Rays have not announced their starting pitcher, but it’ll likely be Josh Fleming getting the bulk of the work. He’ll either start the game or pitch a lot following an opener. The southpaw has started one game and worked four innings out of the bullpen in his other appearance. This is his spot in the rotation, and he’ll get a ton of work.

The Jays’ lineup is very formidable against lefties, and Fleming has been the weak link in the Rays’ rotation. He pitched well against Boston his last time out, but Fleming allowed five runs on ten hits in three innings in his start in Washington.

I don’t expect Toronto to hit much against Rasmussen or Shane McClanahan, the Rays pitcher on Sunday, so the bats should be alive for Saturday’s game. Relying on Kikuchi isn’t ideal, but at home, against a team he’s done well against feels like a good bet.