College Football Betting Trends to Know in Week 3: Bet this Alabama Trend After Loss to Texas

There has been a pattern in betting Alabama games after a loss, what is it?

Sep 9, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA;  Alabama Crimson Tide tight end Amari Niblack (84) and
Sep 9, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide tight end Amari Niblack (84) and / Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama doesn't lose much under Nick Saban.

After losing to Texas 34-24 last week, Saban's Alabama record now stands 195-28. Pretty good. Since arriving in Tuscaloosa, Saban has lost only 14 regular season games. In that time, there is a key pattern that has been incredibly profitable for bettors in terms of the total.

That headlines our weekly betting trends for college football, but keep reading to hear more about Maryland's dominance against non-conference foes in recent years, service academies struggles against the number as a big favorite and Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck's excellence as a big underdog.

Bet Under in Alabama Games off of a Loss

Saban's Crimson Tide teams have lost 14 regular season games prior to the Week 2 loss. All of those games have a similar trend in the following matchup: UNDER.

Check out this nugget from Sportsbook Breakers, courtesy of

It's worth noting that Alabama is 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in those games as well. You can read our full betting preview here!

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Maryland Dominates Non Conference Opponents

Maryland hosts Virginia laying north of two touchdowns in what has been an incredibly strong spot to back the Terrapins since head coach Mike Locksley took over as head coach in 2019.

The Terps are 9-4 ATS in non conference games since that time, including 0-2 this season. Can Maryland get on track for sports bettors on Friday night against a rebuilding Virginia team? The team is 6-3 ATS as a double digit favorite as well.

You can read more on this Friday night appetizer for Week 3 with our betting preview here!

Need help betting Week 3? We picked EVERY Top 25 ATS here!

Can You Trust Air Force as a Double Digit Favorite?

Service academies are an awful beta against the spread historically when laying double digits. Since 2005, service academies are 66-85-2 when favored by 10 or more, a putrid 43% hit rate.

This season, Army lost outright as a 10-point favorite against Louisiana-Monroe and Air Force failed to cover last week against Sam Houston State as 13-point chalk (13-3).

We have another opportunity to fade a service academy as a double digit favorite on Friday night when Air Force hosts Utah State. From our betting preview:

 It makes sense [that service academies struggle to cover big spreads], the triple option minded offenses play at the slowest rates in college football and with limited possessions it becomes hard to win by the necessary points.

Utah State is off of an outright win against Air Force as a double digit underdog, so we have some precedent, but I left the Aggies loss against Iowa impressed. The team shutdown the Hawkeyes ground-based approach outside of the first drive, limiting Iowa to about four yards per play.

Utah State will look to make it back-to-back double digit outright wins against the Falcons as each team starts Mountain West play on Friday night.

Trust P.J. Fleck, Minnesota as a Big Underdog

Fleck has been at Minnesota since 2017, and has pushed the Golden Gophers to multiple nine win seasons. The program is incredibly successful, but particularly thrives when installed as an underdog.

Since Fleck took over, Minnesota is 5-2 when catching more than a touchdown, including three outright wins. Further, he has crushed in non conference pay, going 12-7-1 in those situations.

The Golden Gophers play at a slow tempo and bolster one of the most consistent defenses year in and year out, great qualities when looking for an underdog bet. This season, Minnesota's passing game has struggled thus far, but the team is running it at a top 30 clip while posting a top 10 EPA/Pass and success rate mark, per

Can the Golden Gophers pull another big upset on the road against North Carolina? Find out what our Josh Yourish thinks here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!