MLB Best Bets Today (Think Outside the Favorites at 2022 MLB Home Run Derby)

Baseball's Home Run Derby competition has been around since 1985, and yet no player has ever won three consecutive years in a row.

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has a shot to make history when he competes tonight as the favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook (+200). Should he take home his third derby title tonight, he would also tie Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. for the most home run derby titles since its inception. "The Kid" won his first derby crown in 1994 at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, before going back-to-back at Coors Field and Fenway Park in 1998-1999.

At just 2/1 odds, is Alonso a good bet? You can check out the BetSided team's picks to win it all in our Roundtable plays, as well as our power rankings, favorite head-to-head matchups, top props and best odds for each player.

Below is my personal betting card and best bets for tonight's Home Run Derby, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Home Run Derby Best Bets

• Juan Soto (+600) to Win the Derby - WynnBET Sportsbook
• Juan Soto vs. Pete Alonso in the HR Derby Finals (+550) - DraftKings
• Ronald Acuña Jr, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez: Each to Win First Round Matchup (+706) - WynnBET Sportsbook

Juan Soto (+600) to Win the Derby

I've shared many of my notes on Soto's outstanding opportunity to win the Derby in my original Home Run Derby primer, as well as in our roundtable breakdown. Ultimately, his draw is exceptionally favorable with a history indicating he can take on the two biggest names in the field.

His first round opponent is one of the game's great hitters in José Ramírez, but the Cleveland Guardians' third baseman is just +1600 to win the Derby; the second-longest odds in the field behind only Albert Pujols (+2200).

His likely opponent, Kyle Schwarber will face Pujols in the opening round, and the future Hall of Famer will have the crowd on his side in his final All-Star appearance of his career. That might be tough to build some positive momentum on into the second round.

Soto participated in the derby just last year, and knocked out the favorite Shohei Ohtani with a double swing-off in the first round. He's still just 23-years old and kicked his second half into high gear following his strong derby performance in 2021.

Did I mention he's lava-hot at the dish right now?

Juan Soto vs. Pete Alonso in the HR Derby Finals (+550)

A bit of a hedge in the event that Alonso wins his third consecutive title, I like this play more than the top favorite on the board: Kyle Schwarber vs. Pete Alonso at just +350.

Furthermore, Soto lost by single home run to last year's winner Pete Alonso in the second round in 2021. Should the two of them meet again in the Finals, revenge will be on Soto's mind.

As for Alonso, no player in Home Run Derby history has anywhere near the amount that "The Polar Bear" has collected all-time: 132 dingers to be exact. Joc Pederson hit 99 home runs during the 2015 and 2019 derbys, and remains a full 32 behind Alonso.

Ronald Acuña Jr, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez: Each to Win First Round Matchup (+750)

WynnBET has odds for each first round winner that bettors can parlay into an exact first round winner. Schwarber (-350) is the heaviest on the board to defeat Pujols (+270), Soto (-180) is also heavily favored over Ramírez (+140), and Seattle Mariners star outfielder Julio Rodriguez (-155) is expected to defeat former Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (+120).

The key in this parlay is taking a stab at Ronald Acuña Jr. (+145) to dethrone Alonso (-185).

Is it likely? The odds would indicate no, but I think Alonso is also battling some pretty serious expectations and history in the process. Acuña leads baseball in average home run distance at 437 feet, and was outstanding in his first Derby back in 2019, hitting 44 home runs in the single event and lost to Alonso in the second round.

Revenge Game Narrative brewing? I say it's very much in the cards.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!