NFL Spread Picks for Every Game in Week 5 (Ravens, 49ers, Texans Among Top Predictions)
By Peter Dewey
Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season was quite kind to yours truly.
Not only did I hit 13 of my 16 straight up picks, but I also went 11-5 against the spread, moving this season’s record to six games over .500 through four weeks.
- Week 3 Record: 11-5
- Season Record: 35-29
For more Week 5 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
One good week isn’t enough though, which is why I’m looking to keep this hot streak going in Week 5 – the first week with byes in the 2023 season. We won’t have games for the Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Cleveland Browns.
With 14 games on the schedule, there are still plenty of picks to be made.
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 5.
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Here is who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 5:
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders -6.5
Washington failed to cover the spread in its first game as a favorite this season, but I do think it can dominate a Bears defense that is 31st in the NFL in opponent yards per play.
Chicago is 0-3-1 against the spread this season – although the team did cover against Denver if you were able to get the early week 3.5 – like I picked last Wednesday.
I’m going to keep fading the Bears in what has been a disaster of a 2023 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -5.5
Since losing in Week 1, Buffalo has easily covered the spread in three straight games, winning those games by a combined 90 points.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have struggled on offense – 16th in yards per play, 20th in points scored – so far this season.
Even in London, I’m not sold on the Jaguars keeping this game within a touchdown.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -11
This is a lot of points to lay with any team, but we’re talking about the No. 1 offense (Miami) taking on the No. 32 offense (New York).
The Giants are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, and they’ve scored just 15 points in their three losses. I’ll fade them on the road this week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +9.5
I’ve backed the Panthers in a bunch of these picks, and I’m taking the risk again this week.
I think the Lions win this game (I took them in Survivor), but the Panthers have losses by 14, 3, 10 and 8 points this season. They may be able to hang around – even against one of the league’s better offenses – at this number.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens -4
Baltimore has the No. 1 defense in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed, and it has been elite against the spread this season as well, going 3-1 overall and 3-0 in its wins.
I don’t have any confidence in this Steelers’ offense, especially with Kenny Pickett dealing with a knee injury.
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread Pick
- Pick: Texans +2.5
I think Houston wins this game outright, mainly because it has the far superior quarterback play.
Sure, Atlanta’s defense and running game are solid, but we’ve seen the team struggle in back-to-back weeks against good offenses once it fell behind.
The Texans are quietly 14th in the league in yards per play on offense this season. I love them as underdogs.
New Orleans vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Saints +1.5
I don’t love either of these teams, so I’ll take the points in this spot.
The Patriots’ offense has been a mess the last two weeks, with the teams scoring just 18 total points. I think New Orleans can steal a road win in this spot.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick
- Pick: Colts -1
With Jonathan Taylor potentially returning, I like the Colts to win and cover in this game.
The Titans have been very up and down in 2023, and I am concerned about them against a run defense that is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry this season.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +4
Los Angeles is 3-0-1 against the spread this season, and the team has been impressive in each game – even hanging around against the San Francisco 49ers.
Matthew Stafford is banged up, so I’m a little worried about him against this Eagles defense, but Sean McVay is 5-4 ATS as a home dog since 2017.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +3
I picked the Bengals to win this game, but I have no confidence in them blowing anybody out right now. The team is 32nd in the league in yards per play on offense (4.0), and may not have Tee Higgins in Week 5.
Plus, Arizona is 3-1 against the spread with its only ATS loss coming last week to the 49ers, who may be the best team in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -5
I know the Chiefs did not look good last week, but the Vikings are getting too much love for squeaking by the Carolina Panthers in Week 4.
Minnesota has allowed 34 and 28 points to the two best offenses it has faced (Philly and the Chargers), and I don’t see it slowing down Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City’s defense also may be underrated this season. The team comes into this game ninth in the NFL in opponent yards per play.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Broncos -2
Why am I doing this to myself?
Denver has a historically bad defense so far this season and is 0-3-1 against the spread, but I think it can cover against Zach Wilson in the Jets.
Even after a solid Week 4, I am far from sold on Wilson, and Sean Payton can’t afford to lose this game – at home – after all the shade he threw at Nathaniel Hackett this offseason.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -3.5
Nobody has dominated like the San Francisco 49ers this season, and they’d be 4-0 ATS had Sean McVay not kicked a meaningless field goal as time expired in Week 2.
The Cowboys have yet to face a real contender (combined record of their opponents is 4-12), and I think they’ll struggle to compete on the road.
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Spread Pick
- Pick: Packers -2.5
This more of a fade of the Raiders than anything.
I don’t love their quarterback options – rookie Aidan O’Connell or veteran Jimmy Garoppolo (dealing with a concussion) – and I don’t think they’ll succeed stopping the Green Bay running game.
Las Vegas is allowing 4.3 yards per carry this season, and that should take some pressure off Jordan Love, who is completing well less than 60 percent of his passes. I like Green Bay to win, so I’ll take it to cover this short spread as well.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.