3 MLB teams that will exceed expectations in 2024, and 2 that will disappoint

The San Diego Padres are a darkhorse in the loaded NL West

The best word to describe the Padres over the last few seasons is turbulent. After a magical 2020 season where Fernando Tatis Jr. emerged as MLB’s newest superstar, the Padres faltered to a 79-win 2021 season. Then, before the 2022 season, Tatis Jr. injured himself in a motorcycle accident and then once he was preparing for a return with the team thriving and trading for Juan Soto, he was suspended for PED usage.

Yet, the Padres still made the NLCS and expected to compete for a World Series with Tatis Jr. in 2023. Though that didn’t happen, as San Diego faltered to an 82-win season and traded Soto to the Yankees ahead of the 2024 season.

But still, the Padres have the talent to return to the playoffs. With the rust off of Tatis Jr., I expect him to have an MVP-caliber season where his bat vastly improves from his 113 wRC+ clip last season closer to the 154 mark he posted from 2019-21. Beyond Tatis Jr., Manny Machado should also bounce back from his disappointing 2023 while Xander Bogaerts looks to have his seventh straight season with at least a 120 wRC+ and Ha Seong Kim looks to build off a breakout season.

Behind that big three is where the lineup gets concerning. Without a doubt, the team’s biggest offensive X-factor is Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth broke out as a rookie in 2020 before accumulating back-to-back seasons with 4.2 fWAR. But in 2023, and with a primary move to first base, Cronenworth had a career-low 92 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR. If Cronenwoeth can get back to the 113 wRC+-type hitter he was from 2021-22, it would be a huge lift for San Diego. 

While the rest of San Diego’s lineup — Graham Pauley, Luis Campusano, Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill — is concerning, its starting rotation is why I’m so high on the team. In exchange for Soto, the Padres received Michael King from the Yankees and also acquired Dylan Cease from the White Sox. Coupled with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, San Diego quickly built one of the best rotations in the National League.

Beyond their rotation, the Padres have brought in quality relievers to set up Robert Suarez by signing lefties Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta while trading for Enyel De Los Santos. Even with the departures of Josh Hader and Blake Snell, San Diego has deepened its pitching staff to a level that can mitigate any opposing team.

With a star-studded rotation, a solid bullpen and a lineup with the potential to be elite, the Padres should exceed their 83.5 wins projection by FanDuel and DraftKings.