3 MLB teams that will exceed expectations in 2024, and 2 that will disappoint

The Chicago Cubs should not be NL Central favorites

Among three major sportsbooks — DraftKings, BetMGM and BetRivers — the Chicago Cubs are the favorites to win the NL Central. This follows a year in which the Milwaukee Brewers won 92 games to win the division and the St. Louis Cardinals only won 71 games.

Between Milwaukee and St. Louis, there will be regression in both ways. The Brewers — who feature a new-look team in 2024 — will likely be around 10 games worse than they were last year with the Cardinals likely being around 10 games better. 

Yet the Cubs, whose major offseason moves were re-signing Cody Bellinger and bringing in talented left-hander Shota Imanaga, should be more or less around the 83-win team they were last season. While Imanaga helps form a solid 1-2 punch alongside Justin Steele atop the rotation, the rest of Chicago’s rotation is suspect — notwithstanding potential regression from Steele and the unknown of how Imanaga will adjust to MLB.

Though Kyle Hendricks had a 3.74 ERA last season, he struggled to a 4.78 clip across 2021-22. Meanwhile, Jordan Wicks is relatively unproven and Hayden Wesneski was overmatched in his first full major league season. While Jameson Taillon provides a veteran presence once he returns from the IL, he’s likely a low-to-mid 4 ERA-type pitcher.

In the bullpen, the Cubs are well-armed by Adbert Alzolay and Hector Nerris on the backend with a solid middle relief option in Julian Merryweather. But to get to those fire-armed righties, I’m a bit concerned with the rest of their bullpen as it seems unlikely anyone else will have an ERA under 4. 

Offensively, Chicago mans a solid lineup, but not one that I think separates much if at all from the Cardinals, Brewers or even the Reds and Pirates. This mostly hinges on whether Bellinger produced a 134 wRC+ as he did last year or if he’s closer to 110 as many projection systems project. 

If Bellinger, who has the highest ceiling on the team, doesn’t sustain his offensive success, the Cubs have a collection of good, solid hitters but no superstar to propel them to a division title. 

Between Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, the Cubs have five hitters who should have a wRC+ over 100. Yet among that group, Happ and Suzuki are the only players to ever have 120 wRC+ or better across a full season.

For me, this team doesn’t have enough difference-makers and has too many question marks in a division where I could see four teams fighting for the division title. While they will likely hover around that 80-85 win threshold that will at minimum keep them in the division title mix, I’d take my chance that one of the other four teams steps up and makes a division-winning push.

Projected to win the NL Central by three major sportsbooks, Chicago will not live up to expectations.