March Madness 2024: 3 bold predictions for UConn vs. Purdue in National Championship

Even though we experienced one of the wildest college basketball regular seasons in history, the NCAA Tournament set us up with a matchup of 1-seeds in the national championship for the first time since the Baylor-Gonzaga showdown in 2021. UConn and Purdue were logical picks to get far in March Madness based on KenPom's predictive metrics and we should be in store for one of the most-hyped title matchups in years.

The early line has UConn favored by 6.5 points, which seems high for a championship game featuring two top seeds but is also the lowest margin UConn has been favored by in the entire tournament. Let's take a look at some bold predictions ahead of Monday's heavyweight fight.

3 Bold Predictions For UConn Vs. Purdue

3. Zach Edey Plays At Least 35 Minutes

Most experts have pegged UConn as the team best-equipped to slow down National Player of the Year Zach Edey, thanks to the presence of their 7-foot-2 future lottery pick Donovan Clingan. While the size that Clingan provides would suggest that he can get the 7-foot-4 center into foul trouble, Edey has demonstrated a remarkable ability to stay on the floor throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue has seen Edey play 31, 27, 38, 39 and 40 minutes in each of their NCAA Tournament games, with the lower totals from the first two games the result of resting at the end of blowouts. The fact a player as big as Edey is able to stay on the floor as long as he has without subbing out while being effective on both ends of the floor is a testament to his conditioning.

Clingan, for comparison, has yet to exceed 29 minutes in an NCAA Tournament game. Expect Edey to play at least 35 minutes in the title game and find a way to make a significant impact against either Clingan or backup big Samson Johnson.

2. UConn hits at least 8 3-point shots

While most of the focus has been on the battle of the bigs between Edey and Clingan, the game could be decided on the perimeter. Purdue has a slew of capable three-point specialists while the Huskies knocked down 10-of-25 three-point attempts in their win against Alabama.

Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton are capable of knocking down threes but the biggest threats UConn has from the perimeter are Alex Karaban (who shoots 38.5 percent from beyond the arc), Cam Spencer (44.3 percent) and Hassan Diarra (35.3 percent). None of them had a truly earth-shattering game against Alabama in the Final Four but expect at least one of that trio to knock down five threes as part of an 8-triple night from the Huskies.

1. Purdue covers the spread

Asking a 1-seed to cover a 6.5-point spread in the national championship game may not feel bold but it is considering UConn's track record. The Huskies have won 11 straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digit points, a run that dates back to their first-round matchup against Iona a year ago, which is absurd dominance against the best programs the sport has to offer.

The big reason this game will stay close is the presence of Edey, who will command a lot of respect down low and should open things up for Purdue's perimeter players to get open shots. The Boilermakers also showed some impressive championship mettle against NC State, withstanding several charges from a spirited underdog to essentially put the game away with a 12-1 run late in the second half.

UConn also doesn't play very fast, ranking 328th in terms of adjusted tempo according to KenPom, which should play to the benefit of Purdue since they won't have to worry about Edey getting worn down running up and down the floor with the Huskies all night. Expect this game to be in the balance with five minutes to go, which is something UConn hasn't experienced in a while in March Madness.