March Madness KenPom stats say these 4 teams can win the national championship

There are a lot of ways to pick a champion in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Going with star power is always a solid strategy even if it always seems to fail when Jim from Accounting wins the bracket pool by going with his favorite mascots.

There is a method to the madness, however, if you know where to look in your research. The key to picking a national champion can come down to a quick glance at the KenPom ratings, which rank every Division I team across various metrics, although the figures to watch are offensive and defensive efficiency.

Since the 2002 NCAA Tournament, nearly every team to cut down the nets at the Final Four has ranked inside the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. The most notable exception is the 2014 UCONN Huskies, who rode a red-hot Shabazz Napier to a national title as a 7-seed.

KenPom's National Championship Contenders

Before we dive into the list, let's note that these figures are based on KenPom's rankings entering play on March 17. As a result, we will include the near-misses as well in case some of them slip into the mix when rankings are updated following Sunday's action.

The top contender, unsurprisingly, is reigning national champion UCONN. The Huskies, fresh off their first Big East Tournament title in almost 20 years, are the nation's most efficient offense according to KenPom while ranking 11th defensively.

Another unsurprising entry on this list is Houston, which is the nation's second-most efficient defensive team while checking in at 17th on the offensive end. The Cougars acclimated to Big 12 play rather swiftly thanks to their prowess on both sides of the ball, setting them up for another deep March run.

Regular season Pac-12 champion Arizona (8th offensively/12th defensively) also meets the criteria, as does Auburn (10th offensively/5th defensively), providing some value below the top line. These four squads are the only ones who meet the KenPom criteria for determining a national champion.

KenPom's Near Misses

If a champion is to emerge outside of the big five, these six outliers would be the next logical candidates after narrowly missing on one end of the ball. Purdue's offense fits the bill, as they rank third in KenPom, with their defense falling just outside the desired range at 21st.

Creighton's explosive offense (12th) shouldn't catch anyone by surprise, but the Bluejays' defense (24th) makes them a good sleeper play. Fellow Big East rival Marquette is narrowly outside the Top 20 on offense (21st) and barely inside it defensively (19th), although the absence of Tyler Kolek in the Big East Tournament certainly hurt their offensive efficiency.

North Carolina's defense (6th) lives up to the hype, while their offense (24th) is just outside the ideal range for a championship pick. Two other high seeds who are close to the profile are Tennessee (28th offensively/3rd defensively) and Duke (7th offensively/26th defensively). It wouldn't be a tremendous upset for one of those teams to win it all, but history says you should back one of the five teams listed above if you want to nail the national champion in your bracket.