Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles 2016 Fantasy Outlook

Sep 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) runs the bases after hitting a two run home run off Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (not pictured) at Nationals Park. Baltimore Orioles defeated Washington Nationals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Baltimore Orioles 2016 Fantasy Outlook:

Baltimore’s big coup was re-signing Chris Davis. Mark Trumbo will add some power to an already powerful lineup, but they did little to address the rotation issues. They better hope that some of their young arms are ready for the majors early this year.

Baltimore Orioles 2016 Projected Starting Lineup:

C: Matt Weiters (.267, 8HR, 25RBI in 75 games)
1B: Chris Davis (.262, 47HR, 117RBI)
2B: Jonathan Schoop (.279, 15HR, 39RBI in 86 games)
SS: J.J. Hardy (.219, 8HR, 37RBI)
3B: Manny Machado (.286, 35HR, 86RBI)
LF: Hyun Soo Kim (.326, 28HR, 121RBI, 11SB for Doosan in Korean League)
CF: Adam Jones (.269, 27HR, 82RBI)
RF: Mark Trumbo (.262, 22HR, 64RBI with Arizona/Seattle)
DH: Pedro Alvarez (.243, 27HR, 76RBI with Pittsburgh)

Wieters never fully recovered from Tommy John surgery last year, and it showed. He has looked better this year, but his days of being a top five fantasy catcher are likely over. Caleb Joseph figures to see enough starts behind the plate to keep Wieters rested, but he is a fringe standard league starter right now, and even at that, he will be a risk. Take a chance on him late in your draft if you feel lucky.

Davis led the majors in home runs last year, and has in two of the last three years. He is the ultimate power hitter, but first base is such a deep position that you may be able to wait on him until the early second round. He is a strong bet to hit the mid-40’s in home runs again. You just need to decide how much that is worth to you.

Schoop showed some unexpected power last year. In about half a season, he hit 15 home runs. Now, don’t go expecting 30 if he plays a full season, but he is a strong bet for 20 with a decent average. That makes him worthy of drafting later in standard leagues. Second base is pretty deep this year. Don’t reach for one.

Hardy was miserable at the plate last year. So miserable that he wasn’t even worth using in deep leagues (I run a ten team league that starts two SS….Hardy was still on waivers). Hardy is 33 years old. His offensive glory days aren’t coming back anytime soon. He is best left alone in all leagues unless he gets hot at some point.

Machado’s RBI numbers will suffer some with Chris Davis in the lineup, but he will get you over 30 home runs with a much better average. If you were to argue Machado over Davis, I would have a hard time disagreeing, especially because 3B is still rather shallow. Machado is a legitimate first round pick in every league.

Korean import Hyun Soo Kim seems poised to take over in left field. He put up some gaudy numbers in the Korean league last year, but how will that translate to the major leagues? That is the question on everyone’s mind. Keep in mind that at 28, he is in his prime. He may adjust a little better than previous imports. However, Korea is not Japan in terms of baseball. Kim may hit .300. but more than 15 homers seems unlikely. He should have double digit homers and steals with a solid average. Is that worth standard league consideration? Maybe in late rounds. Don’t reach on something that isn’t a sure bet.

Adam Jones‘s average has slipped lately, and his speed is virtually gone. He only swiped six bases last year. Still, there is room for a guy that hits the mid 20’s in homers and flirts with 100 RBI. Jones is no longer a top tier outfield option, but he is a great grab in rounds 8-10.

Trumbo has been playing right field in spring so far with good reason. Baltimore’s offense is better with him in there. Can he survive defensively in right? Probably. He did okay in the outfield last year. But we fantasy players don’t care about defense (at least in 95% of leagues). What we want to know is if Trumbo can hit 30 home runs again. I wouldn’t rule it out in Camden Yards, but mid-20’s seems more likely. Trumbo is still worth a pick in the 12th round or so. Just be aware that he might not hit .262 like he did last year.

The Orioles added a left handed power bat to compliment Chris Davis in Pedro Alvarez. He will be in a hitter friendly park, but I would still be surprised if he hits above .250. If you can take that hit though, 30 home runs is all but a given. He is a decent later round grab in standard leagues if you need power.

Next: How Will The Rotation Shape Up?

Sep 30, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (39) pitches during the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Baltimore Orioles 2016 projected pitching rotation:

Chris Tillman (11-11, 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 120K)
Miguel Gonzalez (9-12, 4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 109K)
Ubaldo Jimenez (12-10, 4.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 168K)
Kevin Gausman (4-7, 4.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 103K in 17 starts)
Mike Wright (3-5, 6.04 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 26K)
Zach Britton (4-1, 1.92 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 79K in 65.2 IP, 36/40 saves

Nicely put, the rotation was a disaster behind Wei-Yin Chen last year. Now with Chen gone, who will take his place? Gausman likely had a bit of bad luck since his WHIP was respectable, but you can’t find much silver lining in anyone else’s 2015 numbers. As it stands now, none deserve consideration in standard leagues. Tillman and Gausman have upside, and Jimenez is still a solid veteran arm, but I wouldn’t touch any of them in leagues under 12 teams.

Wright was brilliant at AAA Norfolk last year (9-1, 2.22 ERA), but the success didn’t carry over into the majors. If you like to gamble a little, he could pay off big in 12 team leagues or larger. The talent is there.

The youth movement will hit Baltimore sometime this summer. Some could even hit town when spring ends, depending on their performances. The Orioles have one of the best crops of young pitchers around. On the next page we will take a look at who could make an impact on the major league club and when. And also what that means for your fantasy teams.

Britton is not quite an elite closer, but if you aren’t willing to take Kimbrel in the sixth round (his ADP is between the sixth and seventh round), waiting another two rounds for Britton is not a bad idea. He likely won’t have quite as many chances as Kimbrel and he won’t get you as many strikeouts, but we are talking a minimal difference. Like 15-20 strikeouts and a handful of saves. You are probably better off taking another bat in round six and taking Britton two rounds later.

Next: What Prospects Are Worth Watching?

Mar 16, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dylan Bundy (49) throws a pitch during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

We will take a look at a few prospects that could crack the majors for Baltimore this year, and in what type of leagues you should be looking for them in. Let’s get started!

Dylan Bundy, RHP: Unless you have been living under a rock, you have heard of Bundy. He reached the majors in September of 2012 after being drafted out of high school in 2011, which is unheard of. After that, things went sour. He had Tommy John surgery in 2013, and had some shoulder issues that caused him to miss significant time last year. He started only eight games at AA Bowie, but posted a 3.68 ERA and 25K in 22IP. There is a chance that he could crack Baltimore’s starting rotation this spring since he is out of minor league options. If he does make the rotation, he is worth taking a chance on in 12 team leagues or larger. Wait to see what happens in standard leagues.

Trey Mancini, 1B: Mancini would appear to be blocked at the major league level, but if Paredes struggles, they won’t hesitate to move Davis or Mancini to DH if Mancini does what he did last year. The slugger hit .341 with 21HR and 89RBI in 136 minor league games last year. He is worth watching in dynasty leagues. If he hits like that at AAA, he will be up by Memorial Day.

Jason Garcia, RHP: The Orioles still aren’t sure what they are going to do with Garcia. They envision him as a closer, but that role is currently locked down by Zach Britton. He has the stuff to start, and could be forced into that role if Baltimore’s rotation doesn’t improve on last year’s numbers. Keep an eye on his progress in deeper leagues.

Christian Walker, 1B: The Orioles are stacked at first base, which is why Trumbo is in right field. Walker is probably the least talented of the top four at first base, so he is more likely to be traded for something the Orioles figure out they need if they stay in contention. Those in deeper leagues should keep an eye on his progress. Dynasty owners should leave him unless you have a very deep roster.

Joey Rickard, OF: Rickard is a good hitter and good defender. He could end up in Baltimore if injuries hit, or if Kim doesn’t play out as planned. He will likely make the team as a defensive/speed replacement first (he stole 23 bases last year in the minors), but he could wind up starting later in the year if he meshes well. If he makes the majors, he is worth keeping an eye on if you need speed.

Next: Should You Pick Up Bobby Portis?

Stay tuned for the rundown of every MLB team before Opening Day!

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