San Diego Padres 2016 Fantasy Outlook
By Mike Marteny
San Diego Padres 2016 Fantasy Outlook
The Padres have been in rebuilding mode for a while now. They took a shot last year, and it didn’t work out, but some of those pieces are still there. Those are the pieces that can help you.
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That’s great, you say, but how will that affect my fantasy team? We have you covered. Whether you play in standard leagues, deep leagues, multi-position leagues, dynasty leagues, or anything in between, we will give you the rundown on the players who will be starting at each position. We will also give you a hint of where they should be drafted.
Just in case you missed any:
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres 2016 Projected Starting Lineup:
C: Derek Norris (.250, 14HR, 62RBI)
1B: Wil Myers (.253, 8HR, 29RBI)
2B: Cory Spangenberg (.271, 4HR, 21RBI in 303AB)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (.249, 10HR, 62RBI, 17SB with CWS)
3B: Yangervis Solarte (.270, 14HR, 63RBI)
LF: Melvin Upton, Jr. (.259, 5HR, 17RBI, 9SB in 205AB)
CF: Jon Jay (.210, 1HR, 10RBI in 210AB)
RF: Matt Kemp (.265, 23HR, 100RBI, 12SB)
Norris is standing on the fringe of standard league relevance because of his power potential. That said, he is not the backstop of the future for the Padres, and he could be phased out for Austin Hedges at any time. Don’t be afraid to drop him if he struggles.
Myers, who showed great power promise with the Rays, struggled in his first year in San Diego. Petco Park sapped his power, but his average struggled as well. He is worth keeping an eye on, but he is probably not worth using in anything but deep leagues.
Spangenberg isn’t really useful, even in deep leagues. He is a defender only, and doesn’t put up much of anything on offense.
Alexei Ramirez had a bit of a down year with the White Sox last year, and moving to a pitcher’s park in San Diego wont help him any. He may reach 20 steals, which could make him useful in deeper leagues. I wouldn’t touch him in a standard league.
Solarte hits well enough to be a useful bench piece in standard leagues. In some leagues, he may still be eligible at 2B, which helps his value a little.
Upton and Jon Jay are likely on short leashes. The Padres’ top prospects all roam in the outfield or on the mound, so those two are likely just keeping seats warm. Don’t be afraid to use them as plug-and-play options if they start off, or get, hot.
Kemp’s numbers were down from where he was with the Dodgers, and if you accept the fact that he is no longer an MVP candidate, he can be a useful fantasy player. He is worth a look later in drafts to round out your outfield, and there is still some upside there. Just don’t overpay for the name alone.
Next: How Will The Rotation Shape Up?
San Diego Padres 2016 Projected Pitching Rotation:
Tyson Ross (10-12, 3.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 212K)
James Shields (13-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 216K)
Andrew Cashner (6-16, 4.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 165K)
Colin Rea (2-2, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 26K in 31.2 IP)
Robbie Erlin (1-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10K in 17IP)
Fernando Rodney (7-5, 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58K in 62.2 IP, 16/23 saves with SEA/CHC)
Ross’s pedestrian win total was a byproduct of the team he plays on. His peripheral numbers are solid, and there aren’t a whole lot of 200K guys available. His WHIP will push him a little farther back in drafts, but Ross is still a solid number three starter on your fantasy team.
The same thing it true for Shields. The lack of offense keeps his win total down, but in a move to a pitcher’s park, Shields struggled at times last year, posting his worst ERA since 2010. At the age of 34, look for last year’s numbers to be about where he will be from here on out. Still, he racks up 200 K’s, and is a huge bonus if you are in a league that counts shutouts. He is a solid fourth starter on your fantasy team.
Cashner’s numbers were brutal last year. They were the worst of his career at a time when he is supposed to be in his prime. He is a good bounceback candidate to target late in standard leagues.
Rea is too green to take a chance on in standard leagues, but he might be worth a look in 12 team leagues. He will likely have some growing pains, but his peripheral numbers are solid. He would make a good spot starter in most formats.
Erlin’s WHIP belied his ERA in his three September starts last year. Like Rea, he will have some growing pains, but he is worth keeping an eye on. The talent is there and he is in a pitcher’s park.
Rodney was brilliant with the Cubs when he wasn’t in the closer’s role. Can he get back to it as a closer with the Padres? How big of a risk do you want to take on him is the question. He is worth a late round flier, and nothing more at this point.
Next: What Prospects Are Worth Watching?
We will take a look at a few prospects that could crack the majors for the Padres this year, and in what type of leagues you should be looking for them in. Let’s get started!
Travis Jankowski, OF: Jankowski hit .211 with two homers and 12 RBI and a pair of steals in 90 major league at bats last year. He is blocked right now, but Upton and Jay are far from sure things. If Jankowski gets a job, he could be worth looking at. The speed is legit. He swiped 32 bags in the minors last year.
Luis Perdomo, RHP: Perdomo could crack the rotation if Rea or Maurer struggle, but he will likely initially hit the majors as a reliever.
Tayron Guerrero, RHP: He doesn’t have the high strikeout rate that you covet in a closer, but if he figures out his command it could help. If Rodney struggles as the closer again, Guerrero could be forced into bullpen action. He would be worth keeping an eye on if you need saves.
Jabari Blash, OF: Blash has a lot of power, hitting 32 homers in the minors last year. If he does manage to take one of the everyday outfield slots, Blash could be worth a look in deep leagues, but Petco Park is going to hamper his power.
Stay tuned for the rundown of every MLB team before Opening Day, our daily FanDuel picks, and the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament!