Rockies Charlie Blackmon Is a 1st Round Pick in 2017

By Brad Kelly | Dec 11, 2016

Sep 28, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon (19) singles to right field against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports /

Charlie Blackmon has quietly been one of the best fantasy producers in MLB over the last three seasons for the Rockies. Has he now cemented himself as a 1st round pick in 2017?

It is no secret that the Rockies sport one of the mightiest lineups in MLB, but at the head of that attack, has been the steady production from, Charlie Blackmon. He has ranked as a top-20 performer the last three seasons, so has his consistency earned him a first round designation?

In any fantasy sport, the first round of draft is supposed to be about safety and getting a stud. While owners can not win their leagues in the first round, they can definitely lose it. Predicting who is “safe” is impossible, but something has to be said for consistency and durability. Blackmon offers that, yet still slips into the second round. But, is it time for him to become a first round lock?

Blackmon has been the subject of trade rumors, but lets operate under the guise that he is lacing up for the Rockies next season. Over the last three seasons, he has posted lines of, .288/19 HR/28 SB in 2014, .287/17 HR/43 SB in 2015, and a .324/29 HR/82 RBI/17 SB/.933 OPS in 2016. He is simply a force at the top of the lineup, and looks to only be getting better somehow.

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Colorado’s lineup will always boost his counting stats, especially with Ian Desmond now in tow, so there should no be issue with him getting right back to the 100+ R/70+ RBI marks. Let us dispel the Coors Field effect too while we are at it. At Coors, he has a .334/37 HR/152 RBI for his career. Yet, has countered that with a, .261/37 HR/99 RBI on the road. In 2016, he even posted a, .313/17 HR/35 RBI on the road this season.

Looking at his batted ball data, things are all the more encouraging in terms of building his first round case. Blackmon raised his LD rate by 3% to 27.8%, cut his GB rate by nearly 4% to 34%, and raised his Hard contact to 34%. He is continually posting solid batted ball numbers, and these upticks allowed him to post him a career high 187 H, 35 2B and 29 HR.

In terms of durability, he did miss some time early in April with a turf toe injury, but after that, he played at least 25 games each month for the rest of the season. Bringing him to 143 G played, which marks his third straight season with at least that amount played.

His SB attempts were down last season, he had 38 attempts in 2014 and 56 attempts in 2015, so to see his attempts down to only 27, that is somewhat concerning. But, the early toe injury slowed him out of the gates, and the jump in his XBH, definitely hurt those numbers. Yet, 17 SB is still respectable, and he should have no problem getting past the 20+ SB mark in 2017.

It is hard to peg him as a 30 HR threat, but the but with Coors and the improvements in his batted ball data, he should be in the 15-20 HR range, while chipping in the 20+ SB. He dropped his K rate as well, so his AVG should be fine as well, his .350 BABIP in 2016 was actually lower than in the years prior where he hit .280, so his floor his fine.

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Charlie Blackmon offers durability, consistency, and a solid floor, the perfect mix for a first round pick. Fantasy owners at the back-end of the round should target him, giving the great ability to post his all around great numbers, with a power source such as Nelson Cruz for example in the second round. Target him aggressively, and invest in one of the most lethal pieces of the best offense in baseball.

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