Fantasy Baseball 2017 Tier Rankings: Starting Pitching
By Bill Pivetz
The starting pitching pool is obviously deep by quantity. Though, how deep does the quality go? Here are my 2017 starting pitching rankings.
Other Positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfield
Starting pitching is the deepest position pool in fantasy baseball, 150 potential starters. Not all of them are worth drafting in standard leagues. I like to draft one ace early and then draft the rest of my rotation late. There are talented starting pitchers worth drafting in the middle rounds.
In my overall rankings, I have no pitchers ranked as first round picks. However, I believe at least one of them will be drafted in the first round. My top four pitchers are all ranked as second round picks. I would draft a hitter first and then grabbed my ace starting pitcher. After that, I will wait at least five more rounds before drafting my No. 2 starter. I would rather solidify my offense before risking an early pick on a pitcher. They then to get injured more than hitters.
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As you know, I am doing one post per position. Unlike last year, where I broke up each tier into its own post, this will allow you to see all of my rankings for each position at once.
Standard pitchers provide help in four of the five standard pitching categories. They contribute to wins (or quality starts) and strikeouts. The good ones will help keep your ERA and WHIP at a respectable level.
Each tier for each position will be different. Depending on the position, you may have one or two guys or five or six guys in Tier 1. The lower tiers will be grouped with multiple levels of talent, but they have one thing in common, they have little value in most leagues.
I have 65 starting pitchers broken up into eight tiers. The top two tiers have five pitchers each. The top 23 starters are in the first four tiers. Some of the lower tiers have a lot of players in them because they are so close in talent and fantasy value it’s difficult to differentiate between the two.
In the spirit of not repeating myself or my fellow contributors, I will link to the articles of players if we already talked about them. I will expand on a couple of other outfielders per tier.
These pitchers are what the teaser said, dart throws. They can either have great or poor seasons. They could either be inconsistent between starts or have a string of five great outings. Inconsistency is alive in this tier.
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS)
Lance McCullers (HOU)
Matt Moore (SF) – I believe Moore is a sleeper pick now with San Francisco.
Ivan Nova (PIT) – After his rebound when traded to Pittsburgh, I think Nova is a breakout pick for 2017.
Robbie Ray (ARI) – Brad Kelly calls Ray Arizona’s biggest wildcard.
Vince Velasquez (PHI) – Kelly analyzes Velasquez’s fantasy value.
Gio Gonzalez (WAS)
Chris Tillman (BAL) – In his first four seasons, Tillman made no more than 15 starts. He then made at least 30 in the last four seasons. Last year, he posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.285 WHIP and 16-6 record. Tillman posted a 7.3 K/9, the highest since 2013, and a 3.5 BB/9. With the power production from the Orioles offense, he can win another 16 games and with sub-4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He makes a good pick as an off-day fill in.
This tier features a bunch of pitchers in limbo. Fantasy owners are waiting for these pitchers to have that amazing season. Until then, they will fall under the radar on draft day.
Michael Pineda (NYY)
Jameson Taillon (PIT) – While teammate Tyler Glasnow is getting all the love, Taillon put up good numbers in 18 starts. He posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. I think he can get close to 200 innings this season. His FIP reveals that his ERA will stay around the same. He isn’t going to be a big strikeout guy but is a solid back-end option in all leagues.
Sean Manaea (OAK)
Matt Shoemaker (LAA)
Taijuan Walker (ARI)
JA Happ (TOR) – Happ put up good numbers last year. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, he is a No. 5 pitcher.
Carlos Rodon (CWS) – Contributor Adam McGinnis thinks Rodon is poised for a breakout season. After looking at his 2016 numbers, he’s on the right track.
Steven Matz (NYM)
Jon Gray (COL) – It’s tough to trust a starting pitcher in Colorado. Kelly writes about the pros and cons of drafting Gray.
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN) – McGinnis also wrote about DeSclafani’s UCL injury and the fantasy impact.
Aaron Nola (PHI) – After a good 2015 season, Nola went in the wrong direction. He posted a 4.78 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 20 starts. He had a 9.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. The NL East doesn’t feature the greatest offenses, one of them being Philly, so Nola should be able to lower his ratio stats and keep the strikeout rate strong.
Marco Estrada (TOR)
Most of these pitchers have been around for a while. They had a couple of good seasons, but couldn’t put it all together to become an elite pitcher. You’re hoping that they can put up another good season this year.
Adam Wainwright (STL)
Sonny Gray (OAK)
Jeff Samardzija (SF) – Samardzija had a great season in his first year with the Giants. If he can do it again, he will be a nice No. 4 pitcher.
jake Odorizzi (TB)
Rich Hill (LAD)
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)
Dallas Keuchel (HOU) – Keuchel had a down year in 2016. Can he bounce back to his Cy Young form?
Drew Smyly (SEA) – I recapped the Mariners busy Jan. 11 trade when they acquired Smyly. I think he will have a good season away from the AL East in Seattle.
Tanner Roark (WAS) – While I do have Roark as my No. 37 starting pitcher, I believe he has all the makings to be a top-10 pitcher at the end of the season.
Drew Pomeranz (BOS)
Danny Salazar (CLE) – Salazar missed the end of the season and joined the Indians roster in the World Series. I also wrote about his 2017 fantasy value here.
Marcus Stroman (TOR) – Stroman didn’t have the best 2016 season. But, if he can do what he did during the World Baseball Classic, then a bounce back and top-30 season are likely.
David Price (BOS) – I wrote about Price’s injury concerns here. He is still dealing with them and could miss all of April.
John Lackey (CHC)
Michael Fulmer (DET)
Danny Duffy (KC) – Kelly wrote about believing in Duffy’s success for 2017. The Royals management feels the same as he will be the Opening Day starter.
Felix Hernandez (SEA)
Julio Teheran (ATL) – I think Teheran is the poor man’s Quintana. He made 30 starts and recorded a 3.21 ERA, 1.053 WHIP and 7-10 record. Teheran had an 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. The prior season was a bust but he bounced back in 2016. He will have a solid season despite a rebuilding Braves team.
Aaron Sanchez (TOR)
Rick Porcello (BOS)
Kevin Gausman (BAL)
Cole Hamels (TEX) – At 32 years old, Hamels had yet another good season. It was his first full season in Texas and even with the addition of a DH, he posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.306 WHIP and 15-5 record. He had a strikeout per inning, but his walk rate went up from 2.0 to 3.5, which elevated his WHIP. Hamels needs to lower that a bit, but he is still a good pitcher.
The majority of the pitchers in this tier are veterans with still some juice in their arms. They may not be the pitchers they once were, but their new identities are good enough for fantasy.
Kenta Maeda (LAD) – I question if Maeda is primed for a great sophomore season. He is.
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) – Tanaka is pitching lights out this spring. I think he can easily finish as a top-20 pitcher, possibly even top-15.
Gerrit Cole (PIT)
Zack Greinke (ARI)
Matt Harvey (NYM)
Jose Quintana (CWS) – Quintana could easily be in the next tier, but not for the reason I tease. He is one of the most consistent options in the league. He could be traded by the deadline, so his value could change.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – Hendricks was the best pitcher on the Cubs from a ratio stats standpoint. He posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 31 games. Hendricks had a 16-8 record with an 8.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. I don’t think he’ll repeat those exact numbers but an ERA below 3.00 and WHIP under 1.20 is likely. He’s a good middle-tier No. 2 option.
While half of the pitchers made 30 starts last season, the other half is the story in this tier. Those pitchers are great, when healthy. Like I mentioned with Giancarlo Stanton and others, it’s hard to use an early pick on a player that won’t be available for the full season.
Carlos Martinez (STL)
Johnny Cueto (SF)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)
Chris Archer (TB) – I called Archer my least valuable pitcher last season. I don’t care if he wins five or 15 games. Archer will bring his ERA and WHIP back down to expected levels and still strike out over 200 batters. He will fall in drafts, so take him when you can.
Yu Darvish (TEX) – I wrote about Darvish having a breakout season this year. We’ve seen what he could do in 2013. Let’s hope it sticks this season.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – Strasburg made 23 and 24 starts in the last two seasons, respectively. I wrote an update on his injury back in October. Let’s hope he can make more than 25 starts this season.
The five pitchers here are solid options. If you miss out on the top-five pitchers, you will be just fine with having one of these pitchers as the No. 1 pitcher in your rotation. They are just another great season away from being in the top tier.
Justin Verlander (DET) – Verlander had a bounce back season last year. If he can stay healthy, he can easily do it again.
Jake Arrieta (CHC)
Jacob deGrom (NYM) deGrom was one of the many injured Mets pitchers. He did look good in his 24 starts, though. He posted a 3.04 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. deGrom is the No. 2 pitcher in the Mets rotation. With his good strikeout rate and low walk rate, he is a good second pitcher in standard leagues.
Jon Lester (CHC) – After his dominant season last year, Kelly questions why Lester is still being overlooked.
Corey Kluber (CLE) – Kelly wrote about Kluber’s value after his bounce back 2016 season.
When on their game, these five pitchers are better than anyone else. If you can, build your staff around one of these pitchers.
Max Scherzer (WAS) – I wrote about Scherzer being the No. 1 pitcher back in October. He was dealing with a stress fracture but pitched 4.2 innings last Wednesday. He should be ready for the Nationals’ third start.
Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – I question if Syndergaard is a top-four pitcher this season. With the injury to Scherzer and potential decline in Sale, he is a guaranteed No. 4 pitcher.
Chris Sale (BOS) – I cover the Red Sox acquisition of Sale here. I think the move to the AL East will hurt his ratio stats a bit.
Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Not much more I can say about how good MadBum is.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – See above.
The elite starting pitching options are exactly that. There are few pitchers that can overtake their spot. Though, there are plenty of pitchers that can make a case to move up five to 10 spots throughout the season. Those pitchers are the ones that can make a difference in your head-to-head matchup or standings in a Roto league.