Royals: Danny Duffy and Believing in His Success Heading into 2017

By Brad Kelly | Mar 16, 2017

Sep 7, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Danny Duffy (41) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins won 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports /

Danny Duffy had a breakthrough season in 2016 for the Royals. But, can fantasy owners finally trust him heading into 2017?

There are some players that struggle early in their career but you just assume will eventually figure things out based off raw talent. Danny Duffy is one of those players and for fantasy owners and the Royals, time seemed to be running out. But, after starting the year in the bullpen and then moving back into the rotation, Duffy finally looked like the guy we had been waiting for.

But, can we trust him heading into 2017?

Duffy’s story has been well told as he was drafted by the Royals as a 17-year-old. Throughout his career and even now, he is still an enigma of sorts as the potential seemingly never caught up to the numbers. However, 2016 marked the year we saw what Duffy could be.

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After spending all of April and most of May in the bullpen, the Royals finally shifted him back to the rotation in June. From there, Duffy took off. Over his next 17 starts, he would post no higher than a 3.25 ERA while striking out at least 31 batters a month. He was one of the better arms in the game and proved to be a great waiver wire add.

He tired down to end the season, 5.50 ERA over six starts, but he ended the season with a 3.51 ERA/1.14 WHIP/188 K line over a career-high 179 innings. He stuck with the Royals this offseason instead on parlaying his breakout elsewhere, leaving fantasy owners to wonder what to expect.

Let us first get the bad out-of-the-way. Duffy fell victim to the long ball a lot last season, surrendering 27 over his 26 starts. This led to him posting one of the league worst 37% Hard contact rates. But, not everything is as gloomy as it seems.

Duffy showed an uptick in velocity out of the bullpen nearing an average fastball velocity of 96 mph which ranked among the best starters in the game. He also committed to his changeup more, throwing it nearly 20% of the time which is a 10% increase from 2015.

The real key to his success though, was that he attacked the strike zone more in 2016, limiting his walks and allowing him to post a career-best 6% BB rate. He relied on his sinker earlier in counts, evidenced by career-best 62% First Strike rate, and finally was able to work ahead in the count. This more than likely led to the HR woes, as more pitches were in the zone, but it is a welcome improvement over free passes.

Continuing the things he did well, he posted a 13% Swinging strike rate and 32% outside of the zone swing rate, both career bests. By finally adding that third pitch, especially an offspeed offering at that, batters could not sit dead red anymore. The stuff has never been in question, it was the command and the ability to put hitters away. He made the changes to do just that in 2016.

If the Royals had Duffy in the rotation from the beginning of the season, he strikes out 200 batters. His 26% K rate and monthly K numbers speak to a 200 K profile, which clearly only builds his value.

Next: 2017 Fantasy Baseball: Stolen Base Options

Danny Duffy always had the makings of an ace, but finally made the adjustments last season to pitch like one. The updated arsenal, more aggressive approach and pure stuff are finally coming together. He does not have an extensive track record, and the HR woes are legitimate, but he shapes up to be an ace-level upside arm that can be had at a discount.

Believe in Danny Duffy.

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