NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Xavier won’t win it all

4. The Musketeers’ poor defensive metrics are a problem

Xavier enters the 2018 NCAA Tournament with the 62nd best defense in Division I based on adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. It’s the worst ranking of any team on the top three seed lines in the field, which is concerning because dating back to 2002, no team has won a national title after entering the tournament with a defense ranked worse than 39th.

Although the Musketeers are excellent at cleaning up the defensive glass and avoiding fouls, their defense suffers from a number of notable problems. For starters, Xavier is inept at creating turnovers. It ranks 318th in Division I in opponent turnover rate, per KenPom. So, when opponents are on offense, they’re usually able to get a shot up and when shots go up, there’s always a chance they go in.

Of course, the Musketeers’ opponents haven’t been great at making shots overall this season, but they have found some success on the interior. Xavier’s opponents have made an even 50.0 percent of their 2s in 2017-18, which is exactly average for Division I, but subpar for defenses in the tournament. Only 10 other teams in the field allow opponents to shoot an equal or worse percentage on 2s. Once again, the Musketeers are the only team in that group on the top three seed lines.

According to tracking dating from Synergy, Xavier struggles to contain guards when they attack out of pick-and-roll sets and isn’t great at getting back in transition.

Of course, the Musketeers elite offense can make up some ground by simply outscoring the team’s opponents, but with a defense this questionable, it hasn’t worked well historically in the NCAA Tournament.