NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Xavier won’t win it all

This is the last in a series of posts examining why each of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds — Virginia, Villanova, Kansas and Xavier — won’t win it all.

The Xavier Musketeers are the overall No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll headline the tournament’s West Region and even though they won the Big East outright, they won’t be cutting down the nets in San Antonio. From a difficult draw to defensive worries to a potential finals matchup against Villanova, here’s why.

5. Xavier isn’t the best team in its own region

According to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, the Musketeers are the worst No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament field this season. Rather than judging team performance by wins and losses, KenPom’s efficiency metrics measure team performance by output on a points per possession basis and then adjust them to the level of competition and location.

Now, being the worst No. 1 seed wouldn’t be much of a problem if they were still the best team in their own region, but they’re not. In fact, three teams in the West — No. 2 North Carolina, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Gonzaga — have better advanced efficiency metrics than Xavier, which means in order to even make the Final Four, it would likely have to win two games as an underdog. And that’s before playing two more good teams in San Antonio. Those aren’t great odds.

Xavier’s potential opponents in the West are likely some of the most underrated in the field. The Tar Heels have seemingly been written off for much of the season despite once again having an elite offensive unit, the Wolverines are one of the best defensive teams in the country with one of the sport’s best offensive coaches and the Zags are almost always overlooked just due to the conference they play in.

The Selection Committee did the Musketeers few favors with their seeding, but in some ways that falls on the team itself. After all, they wouldn’t be the fourth worst team by efficiency metrics if they played a little defense.