NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Villanova won’t win it all
By Chris Stone
This is the second in a series of posts examining why each of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds — Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas — won’t win it all.
The Villanova Wildcats are the overall No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll headline the tournament’s East Region and even though they feature two future NBA players, they won’t be cutting down the nets in San Antonio. From lackluster defense to over-reliance on the 3-ball to some tough future matchups, here’s a look at why Villanova won’t win it all.
5. This isn’t a traditional Villanova defense
For the last four seasons, the Wildcats have had a top 15 defense in the country based on adjusted efficiency metrics. That’s not the case this season as they’ve fallen outside the top 20 for the first time since 2013-14. Although Villanova’s defense is still quite good — anything in the top 25 is great — when we’re talking about national title contenders, the margins get thinner.
So, what’s changed?
For starters, 2017-18 Villanova isn’t turning over opponents as frequently as past iterations of the roster. The Wildcats’ 18.5 percent turnover ranks 171st nationally, per KenPom, and is the lowest of this five year run. The ramifications of a lower turnover rate can be far-reaching as opponents are more consistently able to get shots up on their possessions. When that happens, there’s always a chance things to awry.
Villanova’s other problem is on the interior. Although freshman Omari Spellman is a serviceable rim protector and junior Mikal Bridges does a nice job on the weak side, the Wildcats still have problems taking away easy buckets from their opponents. Villanova’s competition is shooting 49.3 percent on 2s this season, which ranks 171st out of 351 Division I teams. More concerning is the fact that those opponents are getting just about everything they want at the rim in the halfcourt where they’re averaging 1.178 points per possessions, putting Villanova’s defense in the 26th percentile nationally, per Synergy.
The Wildcats’ inability to get stops could ultimately prove the difference in close games come March.